「中巴經濟走廊」的巴基斯坦困境暨中國大陸因應對策

Pakistan’s Dilemma and the China’s Response to the“China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”.

「中巴經濟走廊」（China-Pakistan Economic Corridor，CPEC）於2013年正式提出，2018年「中」巴雙方共同編製發布《中巴經濟走廊遠景規劃（2017—2030年）》，明確其中交通基礎設施項目即多達26項，其中喀喇昆侖公路2期升級改造項目、「中巴經濟走廊」白夏瓦—喀拉蚩高速公路項目蘇木段等已然竣工，巴基斯坦1號鐵路幹線（ML1）依舊在建，「中」巴鐵路項目則因工程困難過高、涉及資金龐大，目前仍處於項目可行性評估階段。儘管「中」巴合作交通基礎設施建設項目看似進展迅速，但實際上受到巴國沉重債務危機、內部政治環境的家族勢力與政黨力量長期博弈，以及宗教與政治混淆難清、民族分離主義等恐怖活動盛行等等，凡此都對「中巴經濟走廊」項目推動造成阻礙。儘管中國大陸（下稱：大陸）先後提出諸多應對策略，但是只要巴基斯坦本身財政赤字，以及恐怖攻擊未臻改善或緩和，後續發展仍將面臨嚴重挑戰。

The “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” was formally proposed in 2013. In 2018, China and Pakistan jointly compiled and released the “Long Term Plan for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (2017-2030),” which clarified that there will be up to 26 transportation infrastructure projects. Among them, the second phase of the Karakoram Highway upgrade project and the Sumu Section of the Peshawar-Karachi Expressway Project of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor have been completed, and the Pakistan Railway Line 1 (ML1) is still under construction. The China- Pakistan Railway project is still in the project feasibility assessment stage due to the high engineering difficulties and huge funds involved. Although the construction for the joint transportation infrastructure projects between China and Pakistan appears to be progressing rapidly, there are still considerable obstacles for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, including Pakistan’s heavy debt crisis, long-term conflicts in Pakistan’s internal politics such as powerful families’ conflicts with political parties, the interconnections between religion and politics, and ethnic separatism and terrorist activities. Although China has proposed many response strategies, as long as there is no improvement to Pakistan’s financial deficits and no easing of terrorist attacks, subsequent development will still face serious challenges.