倡議效應──國際反人口性販運倡議與販運路線之關係

Initiative-Setting Effect: The Relationship between International Anti-Human Sex Trafficking Initiatives and Global Trafficking Routes

2000年美國在聯合國取得國際反人口販運政策主導權後，透過貫徹國際規範於其國內法「人口販運被害人保護法」（Trafficking Victims Protection Act，以下簡稱TVPA），再將國內法以外交政策方式，藉由人口販運問題報告（Trafficking in Persons Report，以下簡稱TIP報告）評比作為實踐協防販運的目的。後九一一時代，又再度向人口販運宣戰，將反人口販運政策列為反恐戰略的環節。由此可見國際的反人口販運或性剝削政策與美國的倡議與推動密不可分。一般而言，倡議或政策的發起，通常是先發現該國、該地區是販運之「熱門路線」，才有阻斷該路線之倡議。但是倡議或政策也可能發生另一種未預期的擴散或轉移效果，就是倡議後，各國可能為了追求倡議的標準或成效，改變執法打擊所關注的新議題與倡議要求注意的目標路線，反倒衍生「倡議效應」，亦即倡議引發新販運路線。本文主要目的即是透過國際組織收集的人口販運公開資料庫，分析倡議與路線改變的關係，是否有此「倡議效應」結果。
聯合國國際移民組織（International Organization for Migration，以下簡稱IOM）、美國北極星計畫（Polaris Project，以下簡稱Polaris）以及東南亞反人口販運非營利組織「自由亞洲」（以下簡稱Liberty Asia）在美國推動之政策與經費補助下，以政府及民間組織齊力建置的反制人口販運數據合作資料庫（Counter Trafficking Data Collaborative，以下簡稱CTDC），該資料庫收集了2002年至2019年經匿名後公開的性人口販運被查獲案件之被害人資料。本文以該CTDC公開資料庫中被害人所屬國籍，共48,801筆有效資料，分析國際的人口性販運路線是否因為幾次國際倡議而發生變化。
分析結果顯示，2010年以前人口性販運路線集中發生於東歐及巴爾幹半島鄰近地區，2015年開始在非洲、東南亞地區，同一時間亦出現區域間跨國型人口性販運熱點，以及跨太平洋的路線，經比對國際幾項重大反人口性販運的倡議時點前後關係，發現，國際倡議通常發生後，跨國路線不久就隨之產生改變，的確有「倡議效應」之情狀。惟本文因受限資料庫內無被害人個案背景，加上IOM公開資料僅為各國查獲、被民間組織得知、且願意被民間組織放置在資料庫的訊息限制，非代表全面與真實現象，故本研究分析結果尚難概推全球人口性販運路線與趨勢的真實全貌，是為本研究重要限制。

Anti-human sexual trafficking initiatives can be traced back to the white slavery during the early 19th century. U.S. Domestic TVPA enhanced TIP Reports became a diplomatic coercion tool to legally and legitimately impose economic sanctions against other countries for non-compliance since 2000. Post-9/11, the U.S. officially declared war against human trafficking, making anti-trafficking an essential element of anti-terrorism. This shows that international anti-human trafficking or sexual exploitation policies are closely related to the initiative and advocacy of the U.S. Generally speaking, the commencement of an initiative or policy usually begins with the discovery that the country or region is a trafficking“hotspot”, and only then is there an initiative to block that route. However, there may be another kind of unexpected spillover or transfer of it. That is, after the initiative is launched, in order to pursue its criteria or effectiveness of it, state actors may shift the current focus to new issues that are brought up by initiatives, which may, in turn, give rise to the“initiative-setting effect”, namely, the initiative triggers new trafficking routes. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between initiatives and trafficking route change through the collaborative database of human trafficking collected by international organizations, and whether there is such an“initiative-setting effect”.
The IOM together with Polaris and Liberty Asia published their unified, PID-redacted global database of human trafficking victims, CTDC, from 2002 to 2019. This paper analyzes whether international trafficking routes have changed as a result of international initiatives, using 48,801 pieces of valid data. This study analyzes the two-decades worth of data to identify whether patterns of sex trafficking routes relate to a vested interest in the following initiatives.
The findings pointed to hotspots around Eastern Europe and the Balkans before 2010. From 2015 and onward, regional routes were identified in Africa and Southeast Asia, along with cross-Pacific routes. The limitations of this approach are characterized by the lack of detailed background of each individual victim, and access to the complete IOM dataset, making it difficult to identify general trends in sex trafficking.