寮國經濟發展的挑戰與展望

Challenges and Prospects in Laos’Economic Development

In 2013, Xi Jinping proposed the“Belt and Road Initiative”(BRI), which includes plans to build the“Pan-Asia Railway”across the Southeast Asian peninsula. This initiative offers Laos the chance to move beyond its role as the“Battery”and become a linking hub by potentially connecting southwestern China with Southeast Asian countries through the railway. This study reviews the literature on economic development in the Greater Mekong Subregion by examining the impact of dam construction and the China-Laos Railway on Laos’economy. Utilizing the“Small State Theory,”this paper analyzes Laos’foreign policy choices and its debt crisis. Through“scenario analysis,”it designs four scenarios, Dance of Balance, Silent Railway, Golden Bridge, and River of Synergy, assessing Laos’diplomatic policies and strategic decisions in each scenario. It finds that when facing a debt crisis, the Lao government needs to adjust its economic development strategy. This may include negotiating with China for debt relief, interest reduction, or extension of debt repayment periods, or adopting flexible diplomatic strategies to collaborate with Japan and the United States in developing the Mekong River Basin. The study recommends that the Lao government demonstrate determination in promoting necessary economic reforms, improving governance capabilities, and enhancing transparency to gain the trust and support of the international community, thereby attracting more international investment and development aid.