影響南韓民眾對中國態度之因素分析：以安全議題為例

Factors Influencing South Korea’s Public Opinion toward China: Security Issue as an Example

南韓因應北韓於2016年兩次核子試驗而同意美國在南韓本土引入終端高空防禦系統（The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, THAAD），以抵禦北韓威脅的緣故與中國關係惡化。雖然文在寅政府嘗試在薩德問題上對中國採和解政策以及在中美兩國角力之間採平衡外交，但是中韓之間在社會、政治與外交議題上的分歧日漸增加，使南韓民眾在文在寅時期對中國的反感程度亦日漸增加；此現象甚至影響南韓於2022年的總統大選以及其後外交政策的發展。在此背景下，本研究採用首爾大學和平與統一研究所（the Institute of Peace and Unification Studies）於2021年的統一認知調查（Unification Perception Survey）資料，分析安全因素如何影響南韓民眾對中國的態度。本研究發現，當南韓民眾對中朝關係發展持負面的態度、認為中國崛起為區域帶來負面的影響以及期待南韓進一步與美國強化安全合作時，南韓民眾對中國持負面態度的可能隨之增加。

The relationship between South Korea and China has deteriorated due to Beijing’s response to North Korean nuclear tests in 2016 and the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD system). The Moon Jae-in administration adopted a conciliatory policy toward China to settle the THAAD dispute and avoid taking a side in Sino-U.S. competition. However, the growth of anti-China sentiment in South Korea has altered South Korea’s foreign policy after the presidential election in 2022. Under these circumstances, this research adopts quantitative methods to examine how security factors influence South Korean attitudes toward China. This research will extract data from the 2021 Unification Perception Survey conducted by the Institute of Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. The results of this research show that people in South Korea are more likely to have a negative attitude toward China when they have a negative attitude toward a cooperative relationship between China and North Korea, China's power acceleration, and prefer South Korea to align with the United States during Sino-U.S. competition.