模擬氣候變遷下臺灣原生生質能潛力樹種無患子的分布動態

Modelling range dynamics for native bioenergy potential tree species Sapindus mukorossi in Taiwan under climate change

生質能的擴大使用與開發為我國邁向淨零排放的關鍵策略之一，進一步瞭解暖化對生物質潛在分布構成的影響，有助未來資源利用的空間規劃與配置。本研究以具生質能潛力之原生樹種無患子(Sapindus mukorossi)為例，運用集成生態棲位模型，進行無患子適宜生育地分布的模擬，並搭配政府間氣候變遷專門委員會所發布的共享社會經濟途徑(shared socio-economic pathways, SSPs)暖化情境，分析該物種現時至21世紀末(2071~2100年代)適宜生育地的分布動態。研究結果顯示，與溫度相關的氣候變項是驅使無患子生育地適宜性發生改變的主因，未來無患子將可受益於輕度暖化(SSP126)，擴張其適宜生育地範圍；重度暖化(SSP585)則不利西南側適宜生育地的維持，雖適宜生育地範圍朝高海拔擴張，不致削弱總體分布面積，然生育地空間分布型態的改變，可能影響未來資源利用的可行性，建議及早擬定或調整栽植計畫，以提供氣候變遷下相對應的經營管理策略。

Expanding and developing the use of bioenergy is one of the key strategies for Taiwan to achieve net-zero emissions. Further understanding the impact of global warming on the potential distribution of biomass significantly informs future resource spatial planning and allocation. This study focused on Sapindus mukorossi, a potential biomass species, we applied the ensemble ecological niche model to simulate the species range dynamic under the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) warming scenario, spanning from the current time to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). The results show that temperature-related climate variables are the primary drive shifts in habitat suitability for S. mukorossi. In a low emission scenario (SSP126), S. mukorossi is anticipated to benefit, leading to an expansion of its suitable habitat range. However, under a high emission scenario (SSP585), the maintenance of suitable habitats on the southwestern is constricted. Although suitable habitat ranges may expand towards higher altitudes without reducing the overall habitat area, changes in habitat spatial patterns could potentially affect the availability of future resource utilization. We recommend early formulation or adjustment of planting plans to provide corresponding operational and management strategies for climate change.