冤案製造：以near miss案件進行的成因研究

Making Wrongful Conviction: Employing Near-miss Analysis to the Study on the Causes of Wrongful Conviction

如同飛航、醫療事故的發生，將釀成災難性後果，刑事司法系統一旦發生冤案，亦將付出沉重代價，卻鮮有研究聚焦near miss案件反映的系統警訊。本文以「差點出錯」的near miss案件，探究當系統錯誤出現――冤案與near miss案件發生之時，多項造成冤案發生的因子，如何在法院審理過程形成交互作用，共構了冤案成因的審判邏輯？本文篩選出不同於既有討論的輕罪案件，使用Ragin提出的「布林運算法」，比較24件near miss案件和9件既成冤案樣本，以兩階段的設計探求走上冤案歧路的關鍵原因。
本文標定出可能造成我國冤案發生的5項因子，作為布林運算的輸入值，在第一階段比較near miss案件之間的一審有罪判決，經運算歸納出三大冤案邏輯型態，和分析不同冤案因子之間的互相影響過程。
在第二階段比較near miss案件和既成冤案後，本文發現導致判決結果走向歧路的關鍵因子，在於「減壓分流下的瑕疵未察」、「誤信證人基於科技偵查資料的自信指述」和「未盡財物保管責任的自陷風險行為」，反映出刑事審判對記憶、科技、預測能力的偏見決斷，前述由一般人民可能遭遇的財產犯罪類型，所得出的研究成果，是為日常生活可能遭遇的冤案風險，而透過比較而得的near miss案件翻案契機，則足資作為改革刑事司法系統的重要建言。

Just as the occurrence of aviation and medical accidents will lead to catastrophic consequences, the criminal justice system will also pay a heavy price once a wrongful conviction occurs, but few studies focus on the systematic warnings reflected by the near miss case. This thesis takes the near miss cases of“almost went wrong”to explore how a number of factors that lead to the occurrence of wrongful conviction cases interact with each other in the court trial process when a system error occurs—wrongful conviction cases and near miss cases, which together constitute the logic of causes of wrongful conviction? This thesis selects misdemeanor cases that are different from the existing discussions, uses the "Boolean-based Qualitative Comparison Approach" proposed by Ragin, compares 24 near miss cases and 9 wrongful conviction cases, and uses a two-stage design to explore the key reasons for the wrong path.
This thesis has identified five major factors that may cause wrongful conviction cases in Taiwan as the input value of the Boolean calculation. In the first stage, the guilty verdicts of the first instance between the near miss cases were compared, and three logical types of wrongful conviction cases were concluded after calculation, and analysis the interaction process between of different wrongful conviction factors.
After comparing near miss cases and wrongful conviction cases in the second stage, this thesis finds that the key factors that lead the judgment result to go astray are "undetected defects under stress reducing and diversion procedures ", "mistrust witnesses' confident statements based on scientific and technological detecting information" and "risky behavior of unfulfilling the responsibility of keeping property”, reflecting the biased decision of criminal trials on memory, technology, and predictive ability. The above-mentioned research results based on the types of property crimes that ordinary people may encounter are the risks of wrongful conviction cases that may be encountered in daily life, and the opportunities for overturning cases of near miss cases obtained through comparison are sufficient to the important advice for reforming the criminal justice system.