存股策略與股權結構分析──以泛金融官股為例

THE ANALYSIS OF STOCK DEPOSIT STRATEGY AND OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE - THE CASE STUDY ON TAIWANESE GOVERNMENT-OWNED BANK STOCK

本研究的目的在於探討運用不同的買進持有策略、買進兆豐金、華南金、第一金、合庫金、彰銀及臺企銀六檔泛金融官股，驗證其投資報酬率是否能夠滿足每年至少在5%以上的目標。此外，本研究運用一般動差法（generalized method of moments, GMM）探討不同持股比率的投資人對於四種買進持有策略投資報酬率的影響。實證結果證明：於年初購入泛金融官股一張並長期持有者為最佳的投資策略。整體來說，除了彰銀以外，其餘五家泛金融官股銀行11年的總報酬率都高於年複利5%情況下的報酬率（71.03%），尤其以投資合庫金及第一金的報酬率最高。其次，投資金控股的報酬率優於銀行股。再者，有配股之泛金融官股之報酬率優於僅配只配現金股利者。此外，對於外資、投信、自營商、本國政府機構、本國金融機構及管理當局等所持有比率較高的泛金融官股，投資人應予減碼；反之，則應加碼。根據本研究結果建議：存股的投資人應有耐心及恆心、定期定額堅定執行，以達最佳投資報酬率。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of 4 different buy-and-hold strategies to examine whether the rates of return of buying the six government-owned bank stocks, e.g. Huanan Financial Holdings, Mega Holdings, First Financial Holdings, Taiwan Cooperative Holdings, Chang Hwa Bank, and Taiwan Business Bank, could meet the target of at least 5% per year. In addition, this paper uses the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to assess the influence of investors' diverse shareholding ratios on the rate of returns of the four buy-and-hold strategies. The empirical results prove that buying a government-owned bank stock at the beginning of the year and holding it for a long period is the best investment strategy. Overall, except for Chang Hwa Bank, during the past 11 years, the total returns of the other five government-owned bank stocks%), especially Taiwan Cooperative Holdings and First Financial Holdings, are higher than the rate of return (71.03%) under the condition of annual compound interest of 5%. Secondly, investing financial holdings stocks shows a better rate of return than investing bank stocks. The rates of return of government-owned bank stocks with stock dividends are superior to those with only cash dividends. In addition, investors should reduce their stakes in government-owned bank stock when foreign capital, investment trust, securities dealer, domestic government agencies, domestic financial institutions, and management authorities have higher shareholding; otherwise, they should increase their own stocks. Finally, it is suggested that deposit stock investors should have patience to firmly implement systematic investment plan in order to achieve the best return.