國際經貿環境急遽變遷下經濟成長模式抉擇之探討

The Study on the Option of the Modes of Economic Growth Under the Drastically Changeable Global Economy

經濟成長模式包含對內的國內需求帶動成長與對外的出口帶動成長，前者往往遭受主政當局刻意漠視，因為過去多年來在日本以後者為經濟成長模式之主軸而有耀眼成果的鼓舞下，許多經濟體乃爭相追隨其後。誠然，出口帶動成長的確創造出不少「經濟奇蹟」，然而此模式本身有缺陷並且會衍生相當之負面效果；當中國大陸積極參與國際經貿活動後，這些負面效果益發顯得嚴重，於是出口帶動成長便面臨空前的挑戰。惟在「美元本位」持續壯大的庇蔭下，出口帶動成長仍得以繼續發揮其功效。只是近年來美國金融危機終於爆發，重創了全球經濟，在痛定思痛之餘，似乎有必要重新檢視經濟成長模式均衡運作的迫切性，亦即兼顧出口帶動成長與國內需求帶動成長以期兩者相輔相成。不過國內需求帶動成長非進行結構性改革不以為功，因此主政當局或許應該嚴肅面對此一重大課題。

The mode of economic growth consists of domestic demand-led growth and export-led growth; the former has often been intentionally disregarded by the government authorities because for long many economies have been encouraged to follow suit after Japan achieved marvelously with the latter as the axis of her mode of economic growth. Sure enough, export-led growth has created quite a few ''economic miracles'', but it also has drawbacks and produces some negative effects, which have been significantly accentuated since Mainland China actively took part in the international trade activities. This brings unprecedented challenges to export-led growth as a result. But under the umbrella of persistent strengthening of ''dollar standard'', the exportled growth continues to do the trick. In view of the outbreak of U.S. financial crises in recent years, which has battered the global economy, it seems imperative to examine the urgency of balancing the mode of economic growth by giving consideration to both export-led growth and domestic demandled growth aiming at working out the complementary effect. The domestic demand-led growth, however, can hardly get a boost without the structural reforms, and this is a major task that the government authorities should take seriously.