台灣地區97至145年人口推計及分析

Analysis of Population Projections for Taiwan Area: 2008 to 2056

本文旨在分析我國人口變動趨勢，探討目前所面臨問題，並深入論述我國人口推計模型之依據、相關假設及推計過程，希冀作為未來人口推計工作之參考。本文推計結果發現：（1）生育率降幅將趨緩，幼童及學齡人口漸減；（2）工作年齡人口將減少，其中，基層人力供給亦將減少，且中高齡所占比率漸增；（3）移入人口雖可為勞動力，惟仍無法停止人口高齡化之轉變；（4）平均壽命延長，高齡人口將增加。最後，本文針對每項發現提出相關政策意涵，俾作為未來政策參考依據。

This paper aims to extend the understanding and utilization of population projections in different ways: first, by analyzing recent developments in marriage-related and fertility-related behaviours, mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, and international immigrant; second, by developing population projection models under the various projections variants and scenarios based on the above findings; third, by exploring the effects of changing population structure and proposing polices. The results show that decline in population is irreversible, school-aged population and working-aged population will be in decline. On the contrary, the proportion of middle-aged and older workers will be on the rise. In conclusion, we address those findings with policy implication.