政府支出衝擊對經濟的影響：小型開放經濟模型之探討

Government Spending and Macroeconomic Variables A Small NOEM Model

雖然新開放總體經濟模型的理論文獻，在過去幾年中，成長的非常快速，但其原始的模型卻是充分的複雜。為了改善模型過於複雜的缺失，本文建立一個具有個體基礎、價格粘性與不完全競爭的小國模型，探討政府支出衝擊對消費、產出、物價水準及匯率的長、短期效果，並且也對政府支出衝擊對一國福利的影響進行分析。本文所得到的結論如下：第一、就長期而言，政府支出的增加將使得本國消費、本國商品的國內價格與產出水準上升；本國商品的外國價格與匯率會下降，本國貨幣升值。第二、就短期而言，政府支出衝擊將使得消費、產出及匯率立即跳到長期均衡的水準，不會有過度調整的情形發生。第三、政府支出衝擊將會造成小國的福利水準下跌。

The theoretical literature based on New Open Economy Macroeconomics model has grown rapidly during recent year but also sufficiently complex within a standard model. In order to simplify the intractable model, this paper develops a small-country NOEM model with micro-foundations, price sticky and monopolistic competition to discuss the impacts of change in government spending on consumption, production, price, exchange rate and the level of welfare both under the long-run and short-run. The main findings of this paper are as follows. First, if prices are flexible, an increase in government spending will have positive effect on the domestic output, exchange rate and the domestic currency price of home goods, but negative effect on domestic consumption and the foreign currency price of home goods. An increase in government spending will generates the fiscal crowding-out effect on private consumption. Second, if prices are sticky, the consumption, price index and exchange rate jump immediately to long-run equilibrium with a government spending shock. Third, an increase in government spending will decrease the domestic welfare level in a small-country case.