國際油價上漲的經濟影響評估

能源為現代工業社會最具戰略意義的基礎原料，不但交通、產業與發電均高度依賴能源，能源消費水平更成為衡量一個國家經濟發達程度的指標之一。因此各國對能源價格高漲與經濟發展之間的關聯，無不高度關切。

This paper sets up a CGE model for a perfectly competitive market, based on the model of Devarajan, Lewis and Robinson (1991), and then sets up a model for an imperfectly competitive market, with reference to the methods of setting for scale economy in Hosoe, Gasawa and Hashimoto (2004) and Abayasiri-Silva and Horridge (1998) and for pricing in Francois (1998). The paper uses these two models to evaluate the impact of oil-price rises on Taiwan’s macro-economy and industries.
The research results indicate that, when scale economy and imperfect competition pricing method are taken into account together, the impact of international oil-price rise is significantly higher than the evaluation result of a traditional CGE model. However, when only imperfect competition is taken into account and scale economy disregarded, the degree of impact differs little from that of a traditional CGE model. In overall terms, the results of estimations in this paper indicate that every 10% increase in the price of oil will reduce real GDP by 0.016~0.019%. This is a more moderate level of impact than was forecast in the foreign literature in the early phase of rising oil process, which demonstrates that this wave of demand-pull oil-price rises will have a less serious impact on Taiwan’s real GDP than had been expected.