布列敦森林體制2述評

當前全球經常帳正面臨一個前所未有的失衡狀態，今年國際貨幣基金(International Monetary Fund，以下簡稱IMF)的世界經濟展望報告(World Economic Outlook, 2005)，也以「全球化及外部不平衡」(Globalization and External Imbalances)為副標題，不但以此為整書下一註解，並以此做為論述的焦點。

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Bretton Woods 2 System (BW2) concept, and why its existence is maintained. Furthermore, the system’s sustainability, along with its possible future developments is looked into. It is hoped that this study may contribute a more thorough understanding of the present state of the global current account imbalance, and the possible methods of adjusting the global economy in the future can be obtained. The main findings of this paper show that in the short term, the existence of the BW2 has helped East Asian countries achieve their goal of export-driven growth, while also resulting in consumption-fueled economic growth in the U.S. However, in the longer term, there are several factors that may constrain the sustainability of the BW2. This includes the distorting effects on the resource allocation from the U.S. twin deficits and low interest rates, China’s excessive financing burden, and the unlikelihood that Europe and the Middle East will join the BW2 to finance the U.S.
This study also delineates the possibilities for the disintegration of the BW2, which can mainly be divided into the orderly and disorderly devaluation of the U.S. dollar. The former, which would be accomplished through international cooperation, with the countries adopting a gradual adjustment strategy, would be the best and most viable method for the global economy. In the latter scenario, the volatile movement of exchange rates could cause a sharp spike in long-term U.S. interest rates, create a bubble in the U.S. dollar-denominated assets, and pitch the global economy into recession.