試析東亞經濟整合趨勢與台灣定位

近來年，東亞區域內國家正積極推動及簽署雙邊或複邊自由貿易協定，加速經濟整合活動，強化經濟競爭力，因應全球化與區域化的挑戰。以東亞本身為例，次區域經濟整合的推動，首推東南亞國協（Association of South East Asian Nations，簡稱ASEAN），其在1995年第5屆東協高峰會決議，將提前在2002年成立東協自由貿易區（ASEAN Free Trade Area，簡稱AFTA），並於1999年舉行東協經濟部長會議中，決議2010年前由AFTA和「澳紐更緊密關係貿易協定」（Australia and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement，簡稱ANZCERTA、CER），整合成為另一自由貿易區。

The main theme of this study is to examine the mid- to long-term development of economic integration in East Asia and to explore possible economic roles for Taiwan therein. The methodologies adopted for the study include both qualitative and quantitative analyses as well as an economic simulation using the GTAP version 5.4 data base.
In the first place, countries in East Asia have displayed strong economic complementary, a common emphasis on export-oriented industrial development policies, and a high degree of intra-regional economic dependency. These factors indicate that market economic forces are the main driving-force behind regional economic integration. And economic interaction among the members of the region is being deepened and expanded by their pursuit of bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation agreements with one another.
In the second place, China has been increasing its economic influence in East Asia through the expansion of its economic power and the formation of politico-economic pacts with other members of the region, as exemplified by the progress of the ASEAN + China and ASEAN + 3 arrangements. At the same time, China’s growing influence in regional economic integration has prompted some members of the region to step up their efforts to negotiate and sign bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation agreements to make themselves better able to meet various challenges at both the regional and global levels.
In the case of Taiwan, its room for engaging in international activities has been severely curtailed by political pressure from China, confronting it with the threat of being marginalized as the process of regional integration advances. To prevent this, it must strive to forge its own economic cooperation agreements with other East Asian countries on the basis of its industrial competitiveness and the close economic and trade partnerships that it has built up over time within the region.