台灣物價變動趨勢之分析

物價變動為反映景氣波動的重要指標之一，兩者大致呈現正比關係。在1990年代，新經濟（new economy）興起之前，工業先進國家長期發展的經驗，顯示物價漲幅的高低與景氣榮枯的正相關關係甚為明顯。易言之，景氣繁榮期間，總需求強勁，逼近總供給能力，勞動成本提高，同時出現需求與成本二項因素推進的高物價漲勢；景氣低迷甚至衰退期間，總需求疲弱，總供給能力相對過剩，勞動需求減弱，物價漲幅明顯降低，甚至轉趨下跌。

Since the beginning of 2004, three price-movement changes have emerged that deserve careful watching. First, the consumer price index (CPI) has halted its decline and rebounded smartly. The CPI rose an average of 1.37% during the first eight months of the year, surging 3.32% in July alone and climbing a further 2.53% in August, reflecting gains in wholesale prices and the prices of imported consumer goods. Second, the domestic sales price index, after rising sharply in 2003, has this year posted large monthly increases. These increases substantially exceed those in import prices, a rarely observed phenomenon that is at the heart of current price fluctuations. Third, the price differential between exports and imports has widened to a new record low, resulting in a continuing erosion of domestic economic welfare.
Although the functioning of the market mechanism could restore a balance between the supply of and demand for oil and other important raw materials, it is difficult to predict how long it may take for this process to work and how high prices will rise. In the meantime, we will have to get used to upwardly trending world prices for oil and other key raw materials, which could translate into slower economic growth, rising inflation, and a higher level of unemployment. Policymakers should formulate a ready response to minimize the potential economic impact of such developments.