少子化、人口老化及人口減少的成因、衝擊與對策

種種跡象顯示，人口老化及少子化是21世紀人類最重大的挑戰，台灣尤其明顯，其變化之迅速，甚或出乎政府部門意料之外。根據行政院經建會公布「新世紀人力發展方案（民國90至93年）」推估（如表1），93年嬰兒出生數為33.1萬人，100年降為32.2萬人。但根據內政部統計，90年實際出生數僅26萬人，91年降為24.7萬人，92年再降至22.7萬人。此與經建會稍早所預測的數字，差距達10.3萬人。

Population aging and the baby bust are two of the most important challenges facing mankind in the 21st century. In Taiwan, a striking demographic transition has taken place as the post-war baby boom has rapidly transformed into a baby bust, causing a continuous decline in the rate of population increase. Such a marked fall in the population growth rate is bound to affect future economic growth. Moreover, this trend will be exacerbated by the growing number of elderly people and the need to provide social welfare programs for their benefit. The author believes that the government should address this problem by immediately taking such pro-birth measures as covering medical treatments for infertility under health insurance; doubling maternity benefit payments for soldiers, civil servants, teachers, laborers, and farmers; subsidizing the tuition fees, school-lunch payments, and health insurance premiums of children from middle- and low-income households; and raising income tax deductions for households supporting children below the age of ten.