混合效果羅吉斯迴歸模型實證研究:以顧客滿意與不滿意對智慧手機再購買的影響為例

Empirical Study of Mixed-Effects Logistic Regression Model: An Example of the Influence of Customer Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction on Smartphone Repurchase

自蘋果公司在2007年發佈第一代iPhone手機以來，智慧手機已成為全世界最熱門，競爭最激烈的3C商品。相較傳統以顧客滿意度及其他變數討論再購買行為或意圖的研究不同，本研究主要是利用混合效果羅吉斯迴歸模型，討論顧客滿意與不滿意度同時對消費者再購買相同品牌智慧手機的影響，並且研究提出的模型相較一般常使用的羅吉斯迴歸模型有更好的結果。本研究結果也發現顧客滿意度與不滿意度，都會影響消費者再購買相同品牌智慧手機的行為。更重要的發現是顧客不滿意度的影響比顧客滿意度的影響更大，並且顧客不滿意度對再購買行為的影響各品牌也不相同。透過目前使用者對智慧手機的評量，研究模型估計也發現，Apple iPhone使用者未來持續再購買iPhone的機率最高，而採用Android系統的眾多智慧手機品牌中，則以Samsung最具競爭力，超過70%使用該品牌的受訪者，未來會再購買Samsung智慧手機。

Since Apple Inc. released the first-generation iPhone in 2007, smartphones have been recognized as the most popular and competitive 3C product in the world in recent years. Traditional researches on repurchase behavior or intention mainly focuses on the influence of customer satisfaction and other variables. In this study, we use the mixed-effects logistic regression model to discover the influence of customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction on repurchase the same brand smartphones, and our model is more efficient than the commonly used logistic regression model. The results indicate that both customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction will affect respondents repurchase the same brand smartphones. The more important finding is that the impact of customer dissatisfaction is greater than that of satisfaction. We also find that the effects of customer dissatisfaction on repurchase behavior of the same brand smartphones is different for each brand. At the same time, we use our model to estimate the probability of repurchase the same brand smartphones for each brand. And we conclude that the Apple iPhone users have higher brand loyalty than other brands, and they will repurchase Apple iPhone again in the future. Compared with other Android system smartphone brands, Samsung is the most competitive brand, over 70% users will repurchase Samsung smartphones in the future.