轉型正義的社會基礎

The Social Bases of Transitional Justice

2018年，蔡英文政府成立了「促進轉型正義委員會」（促轉會），專責推動轉型正義的工作；促轉會在歷經兩次延任之後，也已經在2022年5月落幕收場。從表面上看，臺灣在推動轉型正義上面似乎已經取得了階段性的成果，也累積了相當多研究文獻，然而有關轉型正義的實證研究，迄今仍相當稀少。我們並不知道：轉型正義的社會基礎是什麼？一般社會大眾對轉型正義究竟理解多少？是否支持？什麼樣的因素，影響著人們對轉型正義的態度與看法？本研究利用2020年中研院社會所的社會意向電話調查資料，針對一般社會大眾對轉型正義的態度與看法（包含理解、支持、評價、特定議題與參與意願等問題）進行實證研究，透過量化分析來描繪出轉型正義社會基礎的初步輪廓。結果發現：政黨傾向與國族認同，是影響人們對轉型正義態度與看法的兩個最主要因素；性別與世代次之，但世代的影響方向，卻與一般常識性的理解相反。尤其值得留意的是，族群身分在轉型正義的相關問題上完全不具任何顯著影響。換言之，不同族群對轉型正義的看法，並沒有統計上的顯著差異，過去認為轉型正義會挑起族群對立的說法，並未得到實證資料的支持。此外，根據本研究的發現，我們也不免憂慮，在臺灣當前藍綠惡鬥、國族認同處於分裂的狀態之下，以目前的方式推動所謂的轉型正義，會不會讓臺灣社會內部更加對立、距離和解的目標越來越遠？這是值得深思、也需要實證檢驗的問題。

Recently, transitional justice has become a hot academic and political issue in Taiwan, witnessing the rapidly growing number of literature in the field. However, due to the lack of empirical research on this topic, we know very little about the following questions: What are the social bases of transitional justice? How much does the general public know about transitional justice? Do people support transitional justice? What are the factors that influence people’s views and attitudes towards transitional justice? Using data from the 2020 Social Image Survey, this study analyze the social bases of transitional justice by empirically investigating the attitudes and views of the general public. We find that party inclination and national identity are the two primary factors influencing people’s views and attitudes towards transitional justice. Next to them are gender and generation, but the direction of generation’s impact is opposite to that expected by conventional wisdom. Most noteworthy is the lack of any significant impact from ethnic background—in other words, the data reject the conventional view that transitional justice should trigger ethnic antagonism.