氣候變遷對高山受威脅植物川上氏忍冬地理分佈的潛在影響

Potential effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of the threatened alpine plant Lonicera kawakamii

氣候變遷對高山的受威脅植物物種構成嚴重危機，川上氏忍冬(Lonicera kawakamii)為分佈在臺灣高山（海拔3,000-3,900 m）的特有種植物，根據最新的”臺灣維管束植物紅皮書名錄”，其被列為易危物種。本研究使用近年發展出的小模型集成法，預測川上氏忍冬的潛在分佈，以政府間氣候變化專門委員會第6次評估報告中的共享社會經濟途徑(shared socio-economic pathway, SSP)做為未來氣候變遷情境(2085年代)，預測適宜棲地之時空動態。研究結果顯示，氣候為影響川上氏忍冬分佈的主要因子，並且其適宜的氣候棲位包含低溫、日較差大和適度的降水量。根據輕度(SSP126)與重度(SSP585)暖化情境下的預測結果顯示，臺灣的高山地區因氣候變暖，川上氏忍冬的適宜棲地大幅縮小，因此，該物種可能存在滅絕風險。本研究成果有助於鑑定未來適宜棲地的轉移，並提供因應氣候變遷的保育方針。

Climate change leads to significant impacts on threatened plant species in mountainous regions. Lonicera kawakamii (L. kawakamii) is an endemic plant distributed across middle- to high-altitudes (3,000-3,900 m) in the mountainous Taiwan. This species has been currently listed as vulnerable in“The Red List of Vascular Plants of Taiwan.”In this study, a recently-developed ensemble of small models was used to predict the potential distribution of L. kawakamii. In order to project the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitats, the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was considered as various future climate change scenarios (in 2085). The results show that the geographic distribution of L. kawakamii was mainly affected by climatic factors, including low temperature, large diurnal range, and moderate precipitation. According to our predictions under mild (SSP126) and severe (SSP585) warming scenarios, the range of suitable habitat of L. kawakamii shrank significantly due to climate warming in the alpine regions of Taiwan. Therefore, the species may be at risk of extinction. These outcomes help to identify future shifts of suitable habitats and could provide reference for conservation strategies in response to climate change.