喜來登行動後的大馬政治：聯盟之間與聯盟內部的政治動態

Malaysian Politics after Sheraton Move 2020:Inter-Coalition and Intra-Coalition Political Dynamics

2020年2月喜來登行動之後，大馬政治沿著兩個方向而發展。一是政治聯盟之間的國家身份論爭，二是聯盟內部的版圖競爭。國家身份論爭而言，國盟+執政陣營積極樹立大馬來—穆斯林聯盟的形象，推廣單一族群—宗教的執政理念。這與再也所奉行的多元路綫態形成了明顯的對比。此外，朝野陣營內部的版圖競爭也變得白熱化。當中，執政陣營的土團，巫統和伊黨的版圖競爭最爲激烈，最終使得巫統決定在下届大選推出國盟。相比之下，再也集團的版圖競爭較為穩定，主要是希盟在東西馬的動員能力遠遠超過其他政黨。以目前的形式來看，國盟內的版圖競爭蓋過它和再也的國家身份論爭，而這不利於國盟成爲第三政治勢力的議程。

This paper examines both inter-coalition and intra-coalition political dynamics in Malaysia following the Sheraton Move that triggered the collapse of the 22-month Pakatan Harapan Plus (PH+) government in February 2020. With the establishment of the Perikatan Nasional Plus (PN+) government that centred on the three Malay- Muslim parties (Bersatu, UMNO and PAS), national identity contestation has been clear cut in Malaysian politics, with the ruling coalition distinguishing itself as a Malay-Muslim multiracial coalition centred on ethno-religious governing ideologies, while the PHdominated opposition bloc is seeking to forge a West-East Malaysia multiracial coalition with a multicultural governing outlook. Apart from such inter-coalition political dynamics, both the PN+ ruling coalition and PH-dominated opposition bloc are also beset with explicit territorial competition among their partnering parties. Such intra-competition political dynamics are especially vicious for the PN+ coalition, in which UMNO-Bersatu competition has resulted in the termination of cooperation between the two parties for the next general election (GE), whereas UMNO-PAS competition has remained confined to specific geographical localities. As for the PH-dominated opposition bloc, such territorial competition among potential partnering parties is relatively stable due to the coalition’s absolute dominance in grassroots support, not just in West Malaysia but also, the East as well. As of March 31, 2020, UMNO-Bersatu territorial competition has overshadowed the PN+ coalition’s national identity contestation with the PH-dominated opposition bloc, and this will be disadvantageous to the ruling pact’s aim to become the third political alternative in Malaysia.