ECFA 的政經現實與意涵

Reality and Implications of ECFA

台灣加入WTO的入會承諾當中，並沒有完全讓最大貿易夥伴的中國適用，兩岸經貿關係尚未正常化。兩岸卻洽簽超越WTO最惠國待遇的ECFA，台灣必須同時處理兩岸經貿正常化（WTO自由化的「延遲給付」）與更進一步的自由化，面臨時間壓縮壓力。
ECFA以架構協議為本，加上早收清單先行的逐步到位洽簽模式，的確為兩岸的制度安排帶來彈性，卻也導致ECFA現階段很難向WTO完成正式通報的困境。ECFA定義上仍屬於「兩岸事務」，國際規範部分則依然懸而未決。

China has been the primary trading partner with Taiwan since 2000, suggesting that, from an economic perspective, ECFA is the most significant agreement Taiwan has signed. However, China has never abandoned attempts to annex Taiwan, suggesting that it might be not appropriate to evaluate the influence of ECFA purely from an economic perspective. From the viewpoint of economic strategy, the worst case scenario would be a situation in which Taiwan still unable to sign FTAs with its major trading partners after signing ECFA. ECFA is a “Framework Agreement” plus “Early Harvest Program” with a list of limited products to liberalize. This implies that the economic impacts of ECFA will depend on the outcomes of the subsequent negotiations, in which is difficult because Taiwan has banned more than 2,200 Chinese agricultural and industrial items from importing. Besides, Taiwan might find it difficult to comply fully with the WTO rules imposed on developed members engaging in regional trade agreements, particularly the criteria of “substantially all the trade” (SAT) in products originating in the partner’s territory since there is no “plan and schedule” in the legal text of ECFA.