中國與俄羅斯、印度信心建立措施及其對台海的啟示

Sino-Russian and Sino-Indian Confidence Building Measures and Their Implications for Taiwan

最新中國國防白皮書提及建立台海軍事互信機制，再度呼應兩年前中國國家主席胡錦濤提出推動台海軍事互信機制的說法。台海兩岸軍力懸殊，僅求自保的台灣軍力對中國不構成威脅，軍事互信對中國而言利益不大，北京因而將軍事互信作為統戰的工具，在台灣國內拉攏友中勢力，在國際壓縮台灣活動空間。比較台海軍事互信與後冷戰中俄、中印信心建立措施，中國將前者定位為基於台海特殊環境的安排，而非後者國與國關係。了解中俄、中印信心建立措施經驗，除了有助於塑造台灣本身信心建立措施看法，還可避免落入中國統戰陷阱。

China, Russia and India concluded several CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) agreements to reduce military tensions along their borders in the 1990s. The CBMs played an important role in the Sino-Russian and Sino-Indian rapprochement after the early post Cold-War years. Recently Beijing has raised the issue of building a military security mechanism of mutual trust across the Taiwan Strait. Due to the asymmetric military balance, it seems that China can gain little from the CBMs agreement between Taipei and Beijing. Beijing defines the military security mechanism as a special (domestic) relation across the Taiwan Strait rather than a state-to-state relation. This is the main difference between the CBMs and the military security mechanism. From Taiwan’s perspective, China has transformed the CBMs into psychological warfare. The military security mechanism is another form of Beijing’s united front scheme aiming to unify Taiwan peacefully. Despite independence and unification disputes, the common denominator in Taiwanese political attitudes is maintaining the status quo across the Strait. Taipei can learn a lesson from the Beijing-Moscow and Beijing-New Delhi CBMs process and avoid the trap of Beijing’s new united front offensive.