大陸預算外資金問題研析與長期效應之研究

Dynamic Effect of Extra-budgetary Fund in Mainland China

大陸預算外收入至2006年已高達6407.88億元，50多年來成長了460多倍，發展成為與預算內資金並列的第二預算，衍生許多問題。本文將運用向量誤差修正模型（VECM）方法來觀察預算外收支對經濟增長的長期效益。研究發現大陸之預算內、外收入對GDP產生互斥作用。預算外支出屬於短期的非生產性支出，具有3期刺激作用，長期需藉助未來資料確定其真實效益。就因果關係言，預算外收入與支出是GDP增長的動因，預算外收支對GDP改變有顯著影響，然而GDP卻非預算外支出或預算外收入變化的動因。本研究建議當局需要合理區分政府間的支出責任、給予地方在租稅收入更大自主權、對行政事業收費立法等措施，以便完整地改革這項制度。

Extra-budgetary fund as the secondary budget system with up to 64,07 billion yuan by 2006, has become a rather special problem in China. Using the vector error correction model (VECM ), this paper tries to analyze the long-term effect of this fund system over the economic growth. We find that budgetary and extra-budgetary revenue produce mutual exclusion effect on GDP. The extra-budgetary expenditure has 3- periods unproductive stimulating effect, yet it still need more materials to confirm their true relation for a long time. To causality, extra-budgetary revenue and expenditure are causes and have significant influence on growth of GDP, but adverse relation doesn’t exist. A series of concrete suggestions were raised in this paper that through dividing the responsibility of the intergovernmental expenditure, offering taxation on local government, legislating fees, government may facilitate the reform this financial system.