1990年代以來中國大陸工業國有企業負債比對企業利潤影響之探析

Analysis of Impact of Liability-asset Ratio to Profitability for Mainland China’s Statedowned Industrial Enterprises Since 1990’s

對於改革開放以來中國大陸工業國有企業之負債比（liability-asset ratio）不斷的上升，甚至有更加惡化的趨勢之說法是不完全正確的。1980年代工業國有企業負債比的不斷上升，應當是反應大陸計畫經濟轉換市場經濟跑道所留下來的軌跡，1990年中期，大陸國有企業負債比實際上逐漸趨於穩定。此外，擔心國有企業高負債比會對企業利潤率造成負面影響的中國大陸高層，應該了解到當中國大陸其他因素能夠加以控制後，負債比將可能為企業帶來更高的股東（業主）權益報酬。本研究主要在探討中國大陸國有獨立核算工業負債比與利潤率之相關性，並將股東權益報酬率（ROE）、工業增加值利潤率（industrial profit per value-added）、利潤＋稅支出（流通稅）／固定配額下營運資金＋淨固定資產（profit＋tax／fixed quote working capital＋net fixed assets）以及資產報酬率（ROA）來作為利潤率的四大指標，透過統計迴歸分析，比較負債比與利潤率的相關性。結果發現，在不考慮負債比為內生變數的情況下，工業增加值之市場占有率與利潤率呈正相關；工業增加值存貨率與利潤率呈負相關；負債比與利潤率呈負相關，可以得到高負債比造成國有企業利潤下降的結論。在考慮大陸潛在內生問題的情況下，利潤率與負債比呈正相關，表示企業高負債比、高利潤率，雖然高負債比、高利潤率違背了經濟理論，但在考慮負債比為內生變數時，負債比對企業利潤有正面影響，中國大陸可以加以運用發揮財務槓桿作用，在此情況下，高負債比並不是一件壞事，端看企業與銀行的行為而定。

An interpretation that rising liability-asset ratio (L/A ratio) of Mainland China’s stated-owned industrial enterprises aggravates their reforms and liberalization is misguided. The increased L/A ratio in 1980 on end was due to the transformation from planned economy to market-oriented economy. In the mid-1990s, however, the L/A ratio stabilized gradually. In addition, officers of top rank who worried that high L/A ratio might bring negative influence on China’s economy should realize that the high L/A ratio could breed high Return on Equity (ROE) provided that other factors can be under control. This article primarily probes the correlativity between L/A ratio and ROE, utilizing four indicators- ROE, industrial profit per value-added, (profit + tax)/(fixed quote working capital + net fixed assets), and return on assets (ROA) under statistic regression analysis. The finding is that once the endogenicity of L/A ratio is discarded, the positive correlation incurs between market share of industrial add value and profitability, whereas, negative correlation takes place between investment turnover and profitability so dose L/A ratio to profitability. However, one the endogenicity of L/A ratio is concerned, the positive effect can be found. Between L/A ratio and profitability, which implies that the financial leverage can play an critical role in Mainland China. To sum up, high L/A ratio might not be bad; it depends on how financial management is arranged.