中國改革開放之政策評析：經濟、政治的改革與外交政策的調整及挑戰

Comment on Reform and Open Door Policy of China: Economic and Political Reform & the Adjusting and Challenge of Foreign Policy

隨著跨國商業活動的迅速發展與勃興，國際間「相互依賴」（interdependence）度日增，「經濟」議題儼然成為國際政治中最重要的面向之一，並與安全議題共同成為國家對外事務的兩大主軸。另一方面，冷戰的結束促使「國際制度」（international institution）與「國際組織」（international organizations）受到國家的重視，成為彼此間往來的「規範」及主要場域。中國自1978年實施改革開放政策以來，即以建立社會主義市場經濟體制和實現社會主義「現代化」為目標，逐步融入「國際經濟建制」（international economic regime），參與如世界銀行（World Bank）、國際貨幣基金會（IMF）、關貿總協定（GATT）與世界貿易組織（WTO）等全球或區域性的「國際經濟建制」，使得二十五年來中國的經濟得以發展、人民生活水準相對獲得提升。然而，經濟發展與貿易互賴雖然使得中國國力及國際政治的影響力日增，但卻也讓中國成為區域鄰國及美國眼中的「威脅」或是「敵手」，為中國當前及未來的外交處境形成了一定的隱憂和挑戰。本文回顧1970年代末期迄今中國在經濟改革上的重要歷程，分析其過去與現在參與「國際經濟建制」的得與失，就中國參與「國際經濟建制」作一整體的評述。同時探究中共政權內部，因經濟改革後在政治上所做出的調整與轉變。另外，透過對「貿易和平論」（the theory of trade peace）的探討，檢視經濟互賴對中國在國際政治舞台上的影響，藉此說明即使現在的中國與許多國家存有密切的互賴關係和貿易往來，但並非意謂衝突發生的可能性已不存在。本文認為當前中國在享受參與「國際經濟建制」所帶來的豐碩成果之餘，應該以更具創見的思考及務實的認知，化解各國對中國威脅論的疑慮，在外交政策的主觀面與客觀面表現出和平崛起的風範，掌握未來二十年的「戰略機遇期」（strategic opportunity），在「國際經濟建制」中替自己爭取更多成為大國的優勢。

After China adopted the Reform and Open Door Policy in 1978, it has integrated into the international economic regime by joining World Bank, IMF, GATT and WTO. This policy has made China’s economy getting the development and its people can have better situation of life. Nevertheless, economic developments and interdependence in the trade section transformed China into one big threat in American and its neighbor’s view, which gave China the very difficulty and challenge in Foreign affairs now and beyond. In light of the period from the end of 1970’s to now, this paper examined the profitable and the futile effects in China’s policy of joining economic regime. Relying upon this, the paper submitted a comprehensive critique about the relationship between China and international economic regime. On the other hand, through studying up the theory of trade peace, this paper also surveyed the affection of economic interdependence to China, and used this result to explain the possibility of conflicts between China and its partner in trade. We think, when China enjoys his economic progress, it should have, at the same time, the more considerate and pragmatic perceptions of reducing the suspicion about its rising and threat. And furthermore, China ought to take the peaceful strategy for his main part in foreign policy. All of the this can help himself to catch the strategic opportunity in the future 20 years and get more advantages to become a really great power.