卜筮作為意向與決策之中介變項研究──以《左傳》筮例為樣本

Divination as a mediating variable between intention and decision-making——Take ''Zuo Zhuan'' as a sample

本研究以《左傳》筮例為樣本，將筮例分為「問卦主題」、「神諭指示」、「人意占卦」，以及「作出決策」等四變項，並以「變項」（variables）對應之。其中，主事者之「問卦主題」為「自變項」（independent variables）。「作出決策」為「依變項」（dependent variables）。卜筮的「神諭指示」與「人意占卦」為「中介變項」（intervening variable）。研究結果顯示，「神諭指示」的中介，對於主事者潛在意向與作出決策的因果關係，影響甚微，而「人意占卦」卻具有很高的關聯性。可見卜筮的關鍵，不在神諭，而在人意。卜筮一旦降低神諭權威的強制性與指涉性，那麼卜筮的深層含義，在於當事人以起卦結果作為媒介，提出問題與外界討論，並尋求同理、支持，以及商討解決方法的歷程。此一歷程與目的，相當於西方的心理諮商。故卜筮可謂華人社會中，特有的「心理諮商」方式與管道。這意謂當後現代心理諮商，強調「本土化」發展理念時，易占將會是一深具歷史、特色，以及哲思的晤談媒介，值得整合並發展為「易經諮商」。而此一新的整合與發展支線，實則可根源於《左傳》筮例。

In this study, the examples of ''Zuo Zhuan'' were taken as samples, and the examples were analyzed into four factors, namely ''problem'', ''oracle'', ''explain'', and ''decision'', and corresponded with variables. Among them, ''problem'' is an independent variable; ''decision'' is a dependent variable; ''oracle'' and ''explain'' are intervening variables. The research results show that the intervention of ''oracle'' has little effect on the causal relationship between the parties' intention and decision-making, while ''explain'' has a high correlation. It can be seen that the key to divination is not in the oracle, but in the will of the people. Once divination reduces the compulsion and referentiality of oracle authority, the deep meaning of divination lies in the process of the parties using the results of divination as a medium to raise questions and discuss with the outside world, seek empathy, support, and discuss solutions. This process is equivalent to Western psychological counseling. Therefore, divination can be described as a unique ''psychological consultation'' in Chinese society. This means that when postmodern psychological counseling emphasizes the development of ''localization'', I Ching Divination will be a medium of interviews with deep history, characteristics, and philosophies, which is worthy of integration and development as ''I-Ching Counseling''. This new branch line of integration and development can actually be rooted in the example of Zuo Zhuan.