兩個政府的故事: 印尼投資形勢改革的政治經濟學（2004-2019）

A Tale of Two Governments: The Political Economy of Indonesian Investment Climate Reform (2004-2019)

本文主要探索三個主要議題：一、根據投資者信心指數及經商環境評比來判斷尤多約諾政府跟佐科威政府的投資環境改革成效為何？二、從政治經濟學的角度來分析，尤多約諾政府跟佐科威政府分別做出什麼改革來改變投資環境？如何及為何兩者有所差異？三、尤多約諾政府跟佐科威政府在任的2004到2019年東亞外國對印尼投資的變化為何？ 在佐科威政府時期，世界銀行的經商環境評比中印尼的排名有所進步。在柯尼爾管顧公司的外資信心指數上，雖然該指數較不被印尼政府重視，但在這評比中，兩個政府的投資環境改革被用質化的方式分析。尤多約諾政府跟佐科威政府在兩個變數上有所不同：國內政治分裂與外部經濟環境。對於尤多約諾政府跟佐科威政府來說，強化來自東亞區域投資與整體外資的成長皆是改善投資環境的主要目的。長久以來，日本及香港是印尼外資的主要來源。但近期，中國、台灣、南韓也將印尼作為他們投資的主要標的之一。

This paper aims to explain three problems associated with investment climate reform under two Indonesian presidents. The first question explores the results of investment climate reform under the two administrations of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Joko Widodo (Jokowi) based on selective indicators such as the Investor Confidence Index and Ease of Doing Business. The second question is concerned with reforms that were implemented by the SBY and Jokowi administrations to improve the investment climate from a political economic perspective, including how and why these reforms differ from one another. The third question addresses the origin of foreign investment in East Asia from 2004 to 2019. Indonesia had improved its status among the 190 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings during the Jokowi Administration, although this indicator was apparently neglected by the government of Indonesia when employing the AT Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index. Reforms of the investment climate under both governments are given a qualitative description. Other than the outcomes of investment, this study is also interested in the two other variables of domestic political fragmentation and the external economic environment. Southeast Asia’s investment figures post-Asia Financial Crisis had altered structure of the international capital with its domestic environment, including Indonesia. Therefore, fostering a greater quantity of investment from East Asia and improving the inclusivity of foreign investment have been the main objectives of investment climate reform under the two governments. East Asian countries have had an extensive history as source of foreign investment for Indonesia, particularly Japan and Hong Kong. Most recently, China, South Korea and Taiwan have also targeted Indonesia as a destination for investment.