新冠肺炎疫情與中國的威權兩難

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Authoritarian Dilemma in China

本文觀察2019年新冠疫情爆發後，中國的社會維穩舉措遭遇的問題，以及疫情對於中共的威權治理是否造成可能的影響。本文認為，新冠肺炎疫情讓習近平面臨的威權兩難更嚴峻。本文提出兩個主要當前中共面臨的威權兩難，包含了中央與地方代理人兩難以及社會管控與政權合法性兩難。本文認為，新冠肺炎疫情在中國與全球爆發的影響下，這兩個兩難產生的治理難題將更加明顯，特別是當中共必須一方面維持社會穩定，另一方面又必須持續促進經濟增長，在疫情下這兩個目標難以並行不悖。中國威權政權如何解決以上困境，將是其統治能否持續，以及其政權如何不受挑戰之關鍵，而新冠肺炎疫情後的中國共產黨政權，更嚴峻的威權兩難是否會導致國家社會衝突不斷，亦值得吾人持續關注。

This article investigates the problems that China has faced since the coronavirus outbreak at the end of 2019 and the potential consequences and implications of these problems for the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party. It argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened certain authoritarian dilemma for Xi Jinping’s administration. These dilemmas include both the principal-agent problem and conflicts between social control and legitimacy building. They have become particularly pressing and salient after the COVID-19 dealt a heavy blow to China’s economy and undermined its social stability. For China to survive these post COVID-19 political challenges, it will have to focus on developing ways to resolve these issues and maintain its authoritarian rule.