舊情還是新歡？中國經濟勸誘對寮國的越南政策之影響

Old Ally or New Partner? The Influence of China’s Economic Inducement on Laos’ Vietnam Policy

本文以中國對寮國的經濟勸誘為研究案例，探討中國增加對寮國的投資、援助以及在寮國建設工業園區這三種經濟勸誘手段如何改變寮國的越南政策。中國、越南、寮國均為社會主義國家，然而這三國之間的關係錯綜複雜。中、越兩國皆努力在寮國擴展影響力以達到各自的戰略目的。本文發現隨著中國對寮國提供愈多經濟勸誘，寮國在越中關係的一些爭議中愈偏向支持中國的立場，具體表現在寮國對南海的立場以及對中國在湄公河上游興建水壩一事的態度之改變。在南海議題上，寮國從支持越南的多邊談判立場轉而認同中國的雙邊談判立場。而有趣的是，在2016年寮國國內政爭中，儘管「親越派」勝過「親中派」成功掌權後，然而自此之後寮國卻在不同場合上發表一些偏向支持中國的言論。在湄公河水壩建設議題上，寮國的態度亦有所改變，從與越南一道對中國建設水壩表示擔憂到轉向默許中國的行為。同時，在寮國政府規劃的「東南亞蓄電池」戰略中，中資企業扮演著關鍵的角色。本文的發現對於以經濟國策理論下的經濟勸誘來解釋中國經濟實力如何扭轉各國的行為以及影響小國之間的互動等具有重要的實證意義。

This paper takes China’s economic inducement to Laos as a case study to examine how China’s increasing investment, aid and the construction of industrial parks, etc. have gradually changed Laos’ Vietnam policy. China, Vietnam, and Laos are all socialist nations. Yet, their relations are tangled and complicated. Both China and Vietnam have attempted to exert their influence to Laos with an eye to attaining their strategic goals. This paper contends that the more China provides economic incentives to Laos, the more likely Laos will take sides with China in some Sino-Vietnam disputed issues. Changes in Laos’ attitude can be found in the cases of South China Sea (SCS) territorial disputes and dam construction on the upper Mekong River. On the SCS issue, Laos has gradually approved of China’s bilateral negotiating position instead of Vietnam’s multilateral approach. Interestingly, though the “pro- Vietnam faction” won over the “pro-China faction” in the 2016 internal election, Laos, since then, has kept voicing support for China in different settings. Regarding China’s construction of dams on the upper Mekong River, one can also find changes in Laos’ discourse, from previously in line with Vietnam expressing concerns for dam-building to tacitly accepting China’s act. Notably, China-backed companies play a critical role in the “Battery of Southeast Asia” strategy sketched by Lao government. The findings of this study provide important empirical implications for shedding light on how China’s economic muscle can be used to alter other countries’ behaviors and influence the interaction amongst small states.