匯率、利率與金融改革——轉型時期中國人民銀行的貨幣管制政策及其社會經濟後果

Foreign Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Financial Reforms: People’s Bank of China’s Monetary Policies and its Socioeconomic Consequences in the Reform Era

本文透過中國大陸的中央銀行―中國人民銀行，探討中國大陸的金融問題。我們指出，中國人民銀行利用貨幣政策工具對匯率和利率的操作，是近年中國大陸重大金融問題形成的主要原因之一。中國人民銀行長期干預匯率，累積了巨量外匯存底，同時因釋放等量的基礎貨幣形成大量負債。由於外匯資產的收益率很低，無法為其負債付出更高利率，中國人民銀行遂不斷以發行央行票據和提高存款準備金率等方式，鎖住基礎貨幣，維持其資產負債表的平衡。另一方面，存款準備金率提高增加了國有商業銀行的資金成本。為補貼商業銀行，中國人民銀行對利率進行管制，透過壓低存款利率維持國有商業銀行的高存貸款差額。這種匯率干預和利率管制的政策，產生社會經濟損失。

The attempt of this paper is to elucidate financial problems in transitional China through analyzing the operation of People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on monetary policy instruments. Prolonged exchange rate intervention, the PBoC has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves (assets). The PBoC also released the same amount of Renminbi money base (debt) by sterilization operations. However, the rate of return of PBoC’s foreign assets is very low, and it is unable to pay a higher interest rate for its debt. Under the circumstance, the PBoC continuously raises the ratio of reserve requirement so as to lock the money base and to maintain the balance of its balance sheet. Thus, the PBoC’s major debt is the reserve deposited by the state-owned commercial banks. The Increase of the reserve ratio has enhanced the cost of capital of the state-owned commercial banks. As for a subsidy, the PBC lower the deposit interest rate and maintain a large gap between deposit interest rate and loan rate of the state-owned commercial bank. The ultimate aim of the PBC is to make up for low yields of its foreign exchange reserve. Policy regulations, foreign exchange rate intervention and interest rate control, give rise to profound socio-economic impacts on the China’s economic development.