工作消失了嗎？──台灣就業安全的長期分析（1978-2004）

Are Jobs Disappearing? A Longitudinal Analysis of Employment Security in Taiwan (1978-2004)

本研究的目的是試著回答一個問題：在台灣的勞力市場中是否工作大量消失。利用Smith（1999）的就業市場變遷的分析架構，本文指出三個可能的長期趨勢模型，分別是調整復原模型、後滯效果模型以及惡化延續模型，最後一個模型顯示長期不利的傾向，描述就業市場的安全正遭受鉅大力量的不斷侵蝕。蒐集過去25年的官方次級資料（1978-2004），比對這些指標的趨勢曲線與上述三個模型的近似度，顯示1995年以後的工作機會和不安全的確產生重大的變遷，失業率、失業動態、組織規模調整或關廠所致的失業，呈現了令人不安的趨勢，但是整個長期圖像顯示的，並非是惡化延續模型，而是接近後滯效果模型。本文的結論是，工作消失論者的啟示錄所預測的失業潮，就台灣的現況而言，是頗為誇張的說法。

This study attempts to answer a question: are jobs in Taiwan disappearing? The globalization theory argues that jobs are massively decreasing owing to increased global mobility of capital, and that Taiwan’s labor market is no exception. Three possible paths of employment insecurity (the recovery model, hysteresis model, and the deteriorating model) as suggested by Smith (1999) are adopted to assess the Taiwan case. The empirical evidence based on the longitudinal government data ranging from 1978-2004 demonstrated that during 1995-2004 increased unemployment, reduced firm size, and more job loss due to factory closings revealed rising labor market insecurity. However, the prevailing characteristics of the current labor market show a pattern of hysteresis. The prediction that jobs are disappearing in Taiwan is a bit less convincing.