多邊主義合作的空洞化：論全球暖化治理中「裂解模式」的興起

The Hollowing-out of Multilateral Cooperation: on the Rising of ''Fragmentation Mode'' for Governing Global Warming

一直以來，全球暖化的治理都是建立在多邊主義的國際合作模式之上，儘管參與國之間的經濟發展和產業結構有別，但在《氣候變遷框架公約》與《京都議定書》所形成之「公約－議定書模式」下，北北國家或南北國家間仍可透過不同的溫室氣體減排機制形成合作。然而，一個長期存在的問題是，自2005年《京都議定書》生效以來，全球氣候治理的成效其實非常不理想。而這樣的情況即便在2016年11月《巴黎協定》生效後，也沒有好轉之趨勢。本文指出，目前多邊主義模式下的全球暖化治理已經浮現空洞化，不切實際的制度設計和對暖化治理的理解不當，導致溫室氣體排放量大的國家（以下簡稱碳排大國）一方面在每年年底的全球氣候談判峰會中取得談判立場的優勢或強勢，一方面卻極可能免於承擔具體減排溫室氣體之責任。諷刺的是，若干碳排大國已在「公約議定書模式」之外另尋雙邊性的「裂解模式」來因應全球暖化，並以此滿足自身的國家利益。經由檢視與分析三個「裂解模式」的合作，本文指出傳統多邊主義架構下的暖化治理應予揚棄，而《巴黎協定》的工作小組應設法在COP24召開期間，透過「裂解模式」提供能滿足碳排大國的合作方案。

For quite a while, the issue of governance regarding to global warming has been established on the basis of multilateral cooperation internationally. Despite the gap or difference existing in the level of economic development and domestic industrial structure from country to country, sovereign states, both north-north and north-south, could make a partnership through various reduction strategies under the ''convention and protocol mode'' within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol (KP). Nevertheless, what was neglected is that the outcome of global warming governance has been far from effectiveness since the KP entered into force in 2005 and has not been changed after the enforcement of the Paris Agreement (PA) in 2016. This paper argues that the governance of global warming based on the multilateralism is increasingly going to be hollowing-out. The flaws of its regime design as well as the misunderstanding of warming governance turn those larger emitting countries into the advantage on the one hand, and into the exception of reducing the amount of carbon dioxide on the other. Ironically, some of such larger emitting countries have cleverly organized the ''fragmentation mode'' beyond the ''convention and protocol mode'', which is more effective than multilateralism. In light of three bilateral agreements signed by larger emitting countries, this paper points out that it is necessary to discard current multilateral mode; by contrast, it is better for the Paris Agreement Work Programme to offer a more flexible and feasible mechanism, in which those larger emitting countries are available and willing to deal with warming problems through the ''fragmentation mode'' rather than multilateral mode from 3-14 December 2018, COP24 in Poland.