北韓邁向擁核國的戰略同盟：北韓與中國與俄羅斯間戰略物資貿易之剖析

North Korea's Strategic Alliance towards Becoming a Nuclear Weapons State: Analysis of the trade in strategic items between North Korea, China and Russia

晚近北韓已進行一連串的核試爆以展現其技術能力，即試圖藉構建其核武嚇阻能力來與美國談判。只要北韓所企盼的外在環境與實際所處的外在環境有差距，北韓就很有可能會繼續力圖縮短差距。由於北韓在嚇阻外在威脅信心日增，金正恩已越來越傾向於採取獨立自主的作法，並以此來與中國保持距離。然而，在此同時北韓又維持著與北京一定的親密關係，使中國不致於切斷其生命線，如此中國可作為其對國際壓力的緩衝區。本文主旨在從北韓的心理環境（psychological milieu）與運作環境（operational milieu）不搭配來闡述北韓何以集中全國資源發展核武與飛彈，繼而討論在此背景下何以北韓與中國、俄羅斯關係在戰略上極為重要。再者，在北韓依賴國外提供其發展核武與飛彈所需物資的假設下，本文檢視2010年至2014年期間北韓與其他聯合國成員國間主要戰略物資的貿易。作者最終認為從中國與俄羅斯兩國與北韓在戰略物資貿易所佔的比率來看，北韓與這兩國鄰國維持「戰略同盟」。

North Korea has defied the pressure of sanctions by the international community with a series of nuclear tests and missile launches in 2016. In January and September, the North conducted two nuclear tests and test-fired submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), heightening tension on the Korean peninsula. From its first nuclear test in 2006 to the fourth in 2013, North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations could be predicted to a certain extent as it reacted to a series of incidents. That is, North Korea took actions in response to major events such as the US sanctions against Banco Delta Asia; the UN Security Council resolution on North Korea; heightened controversy over the procedures for inspection of North Korea's nuclear facilities; attempts to increase leverage in dealing with a new US administration, etc.