龍在陌生海域：中國對太平洋島國外交之困境

Dragon in Unfamiliar Waters: China's Pacific Islands Dilemma

中國擁有8個太平洋島國友邦，臺灣則擁有6個，對中國而言，太平洋地區是外交重要攻防之地；就戰略觀之，倘中國欲發展海權，除印度洋及南海海域外，太平洋海域深具重要戰略價值，因為散布在太平洋上之島國及屬地，均可成為重要據點。然而，中國學界在有關太平洋島國學術之討論專文甚少，一般多引用西方或海外華裔學者之論點，然西方學界存在兩派爭辯：一派堅信中國將在太平洋挑戰美國等傳統利害相關國利益；另一派則認為中國在此區域仍未成氣候。不過平實而論，中國雖欲邁向太平洋海域，但在此區之外交經營並不順遂，例如2006-2009年分別在索羅門群島、東加王國及巴布亞紐幾內亞暴發了排華運動，當地居民與華人關係緊張；又，斐濟2006年12月發生政變後遲遲未能恢復民主，西方大多將矛頭指向中國，而中國也在斐濟問題上進退兩難。爰此，本文首先就學界討論中國對太平洋島國之觀點，進行綜合整理，其次，本文試圖從現實主義中有關國家利益及權力論觀點出發，輔之以外交實例，說明中國在對太平洋島國實際外交作為中所遭遇到之困境，最後得出結論認為，中國仍覬覦太平洋島國之戰略價值，僅因其作為一陸權國家在太平洋海域中仍舊陌生，無法掌握太平洋島國文化與脈動，使其有效發揮國際政治權力，以致暫行「韜光養晦」之外交政策。

China has eight allies and Taiwan has six in the Pacific Ocean. For China, this region is an important diplomatic battlefield. On the strategic perspective, if China wants to become a sea power, the pacific islands are important strongholds due to their strategic values. However, there are few Chinese academic articles touching upon these topics. In western scholars' opinions, they are divided two groups: one group believes that China will challenge the U.S. and other traditional powers; the other group believes that China's influence is still weak in this region. During 2006-2009, some anti-Chinese violence were happened in Solomon Islands, Tonga and Papua New Guinea. At that time, the People's Republic of China supported Fiji's military regime not to restore democracy after 2006 coup d'etat. Therefore, this article appears different opinions about the relationship between China and Pacific islands, and attempts from the realism of the national interests and power of point of view, supported by foreign examples to illustrate the difficulties. The conclusion is that China still covets the strategic values of the Pacific islands, but its role of a traditional land power in the world, it cannot grasp the pulse of the pacific islands culture to make it effective as an international political power, resulting in temporary ''bide its time and hide its capabilities'' (tao guang yang hui) in China's foreign policy.