法國推動歐盟解除對中共軍售禁令：兼論其軍售中共之展望

France's Efforts to Leave the EU Arms Embargo on China: An Analysis on the Outlook of France Arms Transfer to China

1989年起，歐洲共同體（Communauté Européenne）及其後之歐洲聯盟（UE, l'Union Européenne）開始對中共實施軍售禁令。法國近年來屢屢在歐盟中主張解禁，惟各方多以軍售以外的利益作解讀，指法國用意並不在軍售；相對的，法國國內則以美法關係與人權議題而反對，擔心解禁帶來的銷售。對此，本文發現，從法國歷來軍售之特性、歐盟禁令法規、法國對中軍售、俄國軍備傾銷等層面來看，法國國內反對意見的擔憂不是全無理由；但從法國軍備在中共市場上的供需關係中，法國軍備受系統相容性、價格、技術水準、科技保護等客觀條件的限制，加上中共自主國防工業已大有進步，於中共市場上並無明顯的競爭優勢，縱使歐盟禁令解除亦難以搶佔中共市場。軍售以外利益的解讀確實較能說明法國推動解禁的用意。

The European Union (EU) established an arms embargo on China since 1989. France for years encouraged a lifting on the embargo and this is often interpreted with interests other than arms sale. Lifting the embargo is not for arms sales but to improve the Sino-Franco relations. In contrast, efforts to lift the embargo gathered much opposition from the French public because of the concern of Franco-US relations and human rights stance, which would be jeopardized when French arms crowd into China. The essay analyzes the persisting character in French arms transfer, the EU Arms Embargo regulations, the French arms transfer to China after 1989, and China's recent foreign arms procurements from Russia. This could explain the origins of the opposition from French public. However, from a prospect of supply and demand, the essay argues that, French arms not only have difficulties to operate with the existing Russian equipment in Chinese inventory, but also suffer from high-price, limited merit in performances, technology protection, and the strong competition form the Chinese indigenous defense products with considerable improvements in quality. In other words, even if EU lifted the arms embargo, French arms are not advantageous in China. Interests other than arms sale is convincing.