東地中海衝突下的土耳其藍色家園準則與其外交政策

Turkish “Blue Homeland” doctrine and foreign policy in the period of East Mediterranean Sea disputes

本文從戰略文化與國際關係理論的論述研究，檢視東地中海衝突期間，土耳其的「藍色家園準則」。本文發現土國的戰略並沒有如一些研究指出，受到經濟與民族主義等因素影響，必然走向更加獨斷的外交政策，相反地，其領導人論述仍在傳統戰略文化中「凱末爾主義」與「新奧斯曼主義」中「威脅」與「願景」認知的影響範圍內，並以威脅認知為優先，近期更因與周邊國家關係和緩，與俄烏戰爭發生之後，而有走回新奧斯曼主義中的橋樑者或強調在中東角色的傾向。

This paper examines Turkish “Blue Homeland” doctrine and official discourses in the period of East Mediterranean Sea disputes with strategic culture and international relations theories. The research has shown that, contrary to some other findings, Turkish foreign policy does not lead to assertive behavior because of deterioration of economy or nationalism. After analyzing leaders’ discourses, this study found that it is still on the track of Turkey’s traditional strategic culture. Kemalism/Neo-Ottomanism and perception of threat/vision are rooted in its strategic culture and Turkish policymakers take threat perception as major concern. Following diplomatic normalization with regional countries and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey seems to have an inclination on the “Bridge” role and “stress on the Middle East” embedded in Neo-Ottomanism.