氣候變化“小多邊主義”法治研究

The Research on the Rule of Law Related to Climate Change Minilateralism

國際社會向來以多邊主義作為氣候變化治理的起點。然而《京都議定書》第二承諾期的波折、哥本哈根氣候大會的黯然落幕，以及美國對《巴黎協定》的態度反差，相繼昭示多邊主義的曲折與集體行動邏輯的乏力。小多邊主義在决策、激勵、懲罰等機制上的比較優勢有助於緩解當前氣候變化治理的困難。氣候變化小多邊主義欲對多邊主義發揮巨大的正向效應，應當以中國、歐盟、美國、印度等關鍵碳排放國為主導而形成軸心，將這些國家或地區的氣候變化與國際貿易、投資、金融、知識産權等進行關聯、掛鈎，形成交互的利益置換機制，並以FTA等經貿協定作為可行載體進而實現硬法化。“歐盟版”FTA將氣候變化議題融入堪稱現代氣候變化小多邊主義典範，其在關鍵碳排放國間的推演必然會發揮良性示範效應，進而推進下一輪多邊主義的高階運行。

The international community has always taken multilateralism as the starting point for climate change governance. However, the setbacks of the second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol, the failure of the Copenhagen climate conference and the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement have demonstrated the twists and turns of multilateralism and the weakness of the collective action logic. The comparative advantages of minilateralism in decision-making, incentive and punishment mechanisms can help alleviate the current dilemma of climate change governance. To exert a great positive effect on multilateralism, climate change minilateralism should be led by some key carbon emitting countries such as China, the EU, the US, and India to form an axis, linking the issues on climate change in these countries or regions with international trade, investment, finance, and intellectual property rights; forming an interactive benefit exchange mechanism; and using economic and trade agreements such as FTAs as a feasible carrier to achieve hard legalization. The integration of climate change issues into the 'EU version' FTA is a model of modem climate change minilateralism. And its implementation among key carbon emitting countries will definitely exert a positive demonstration effect, which will promote the next round of multilateralism at a higher level.