氣候變遷下林火防治之碳保存效益分析

An analysis of carbon conservation of forest fires prevention under climate change

許多研究指出氣候變遷是全球正在發生的不爭事實，並認為是人類史上所面臨的最大挑戰，人為的溫室氣體排放增加是加速這一過程的主要原因。因此，各國迫切需要找到緩解氣候變遷的解決方案，森林無疑是提供碳匯功能最有效和最簡單的方式之一，可透過保存森林資源中已存在的碳庫，防止或減少已經固定在碳匯中的碳釋放至大氣中，以達到碳保存的目標。然而氣候變遷加速林火發生，使整體收穫材積減少，更導致森林碳保存的損失。本文旨在從森林火災的控制與預防角度切入探討林火防治之碳保存效益，將林火所導致的碳保存量損失進行評估；利用二次資料及二元羅吉斯迴歸實證模型方法進行推估，研究結果指出，若林火防治減少25%-75%的林火發生率，可產生每年約96,694.88-290,084.63元之碳保存效益。危險度預測結果指出，月均溫及月均降雨量與林火發生的機率呈現負向顯著關係。本研究亦顯示預防森林火災的發生具有正向效益，並有助於減緩氣候變遷，據此，本研究建議政府重視森林的碳保存效益，制定相關管理規範，進而促進氣候變遷調適行動之實施。

Most researches indicates that climate change is an indisputable fact that is happening in the world, and consider it to be the greatest challenge in human history. It is widely believed that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are largely responsible for accelerating this process. Therefore, countries need to find solutions urgently to mitigate climate change. Forests are undoubtedly one of the most effective and easiest ways to provide carbon sinks. The conservation of the carbon is achieved by preserving the carbon in the forest resources and preventing the releasing of carbon into the atmosphere. However, forest fires not only reduces the overall volume of the timber harvested, but also leads to the loss of forest carbon conservation. This study aims to discuss the benefits of forest fire prevention and strategies of control carbon conservation from the perspective of forest fire control and prevention, and to estimate the loss of carbon conservation caused by forest fires using secondary data and binary Logistic regression empirical model methods. The results showed that if forest fire prevention and control reduced the incidence of forest fires by 25%-75%, about 396,694.88-290,084.63 NTD per year if carbon conservation benefits can be generated. The risk prediction results showed that the monthly average temperature and monthly rainfall had a negative and significant relationship with the probability of forest fires. The results of this study showed that the prevention of forest fires had benefit effects and helped to mitigate climate change. We suggested that the government should establish a carbon trading platform, pay attention to the carbon conservation benefits of forests, and formulate relevant management regulations and trading systems, integrating greenhouse gas emissions management and carbon trading platforms, and encourage people and society to take actions to adapt to effects of climate change.