運數說與南宋亡國論述

The Concept of Destiny and Interpretations on the Decline of the Southern Song Dynasty

元代滅亡南宋後，出現了許多解釋南宋亡國原因的法，本文要討論的是各種從「天意」或「運數」角度來解釋南宋滅亡的論述。這些意見摻雜了報應、讖文、數術、異象與預言之，強調一國之興衰自有定數，非人力所能改變，在南宋亡國之前已有諸多徵兆預示政權的結束。在元代南方書肆刊行的南宋歷史著作中常見此類法，本文試圖從歷史書寫的角度來探討這些預言的產生背景，並從士人的作品中尋找、分析此類法的源頭。政權的興衰是由天意還是人事來決定，是宋代之前即已存在的爭議。南宋偏安江南，許多士人將無力收復故土的結果，歸咎於天意或運數。等到襄樊失守，南宋看似穩固的防線在兩年之內被元軍全面突破，亡國之禍的突然降臨，促使時人尋找人力之外的其他解釋。忽必烈君臣將南下滅宋與北宋兼併南唐的過程相比附，以「天道好還」來合理化伐宋之舉，也形塑了宋亡於丙子年為「定數」之。官方的政治宣傳與民間的歷史書寫交互影響，共同促成天命、運數之的普遍流行。

After the establishment of the Yuan dynasty following the conquering of the Southern Song, seemingly innumerable discussions on the reasons for the fall of the Song dynasty have been recorded. This article focuses on discourses which explained its collapse from the perspective of nonhuman factors, namely the Mandate of Heaven and being predetermined by destiny. These views, which describe the rise and fall of a state being fixed, incorporated prophecies and unusual natural omens that had already occurred before 1276, indicating the impending conclusion of the Song's dynastic fortune. These kinds of arguments are mainly found in texts published by private bookstores in southern China, thereby illustrating that the compilers of these texts were individuals who had suffered while becoming a conquered people. Their concepts regarding the dynastic transition are invariably revealed by these arguments. After engaging with Song troops for four decades, the Mongol armies broke through in 1274 and forced the Song emperor to surrender just two years later, a sudden fall beyond many people's imagination which caused them to seek explanations outside of human actions. The Yuan government likewise used the idea of destiny to legitimize their military actions. Kublai Khan (1215-1294) and his officials, for example, argued that Emperor Gong of Song (1271-1323) lost his regime precisely the same way in which his predecessors had built their dynasty, connoting the predetermined nature of his misfortune. In this way, both official historical writings and private publications were behind the frequent appearance of nonhuman factors in discussions on Song history during the Yuan dynasty.