從立陶宛問題解析中國大陸回應美國友台政策的模式：行動戰略的觀點

Analyzing the Action Mode of Mainland China in Responding to the U.S. Friendly Policy towards Taiwan from the Lithuanian Issue: A 'Strategy of Action' Perspective

本文主要藉由整理中國對於立陶宛在美國支持下強化與台灣之間的關係所採取之回應，建構一個中國在處理涉及主權爭議問題的模式。在立陶宛問題中，中國希望迫使立陶宛重新回到它所認知的「一個中國原則」，因此採取各項外交與經濟作為，來對立陶宛施加壓力。本文將使用「行動戰略」的觀點來分析中國採取的「強制行動」。本文將中國的動作稱之為「間接模式的強制行動」。此種動作乃是以「非軍事力量」為主，而以「軍事力量」為輔來對敵人進行「間接壓迫」，強迫對手讓步或改變自己的行為。此種模式在釣魚台與南海爭端及兩岸關係上中國大陸都曾經運用，似乎已成為其處理主權爭議的行動模式。本文認為中國大陸的強制行動成功的傷害的立陶宛的經濟，也讓立陶宛內部產生政治上的分裂，在行動效果上已產生作用。但在另一方面，卻強化歐盟的團結，也給了美國獲得再次主導歐洲的機會。甚至在長期而言，這種行動傷害中國大陸的國際形象。而且就行動目標而言，中國大陸未能迫使立陶宛改變外交決策，未來將會需要持續的對立陶宛進行施壓，如此一來將持續引起國際社會的反感。因此，對於中國大陸來說，此種強制行動或許會產生「得不償失」的結果。本文亦認為台灣對於中國大陸的「間接模式的總體戰略行動」必須要有所警覺，但同時也要避免如同立陶宛一樣陷入進退兩難的困境。

This article will use the ＂Strategy of Action＂ view point to analyze ＂coercive actions＂ that China has taken. China's actions can be called ＂coercive actions in indirect mode.＂ It argues that the mainland Chinese's coercive action successfully damaged the Lithuania economy, and also caused a political division within Lithuania, which has played a role in the effect of the action. On the other hand, it strengthens the unity of the European Union and gives the United States a chance to dominate Europe again. Even from a long-term perspective, such actions would hurt China's international image. Moreover, in terms of action goals, China has failed to force Lithuania to change its diplomatic decision-making. In the future, it will need to continue to put pressure on Lithuania, which will continue to cause resentment from the international community. Therefore, for China, such coercive action may have the result of ＂more than the gain.＂ In conclusion, this article argues that Taiwan must be alert to the ＂total strategic action in the indirect model＂ in China to avoid being caught in a dilemma like Lithuania.