轉型中越南的經濟發展與空氣品質

Vietnam’s Economy in Transition and its Air Quality (in Chinese)

越南是下屆亞洲四小龍最熱門的候選國家，同時也是全世界二氧化碳排放量成長率最高的國家之一，這兩者的關聯性讓人感到興趣。本文採用自1990年以來世界銀行的空氣品質和經濟數據、Freedom House等機構調查的人民自由權指數、「世界價值觀調查」（World Values Survey）以及越南省級治理和公共行政績效指數調查（Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index, PAPI）中越南國民對環境保護的態度，探討越南的環境品質。研究發現，越南的經濟發展對空氣品質的規模效果持續增加（即汙染排放量增加）。但因為低公民和參政權、政府執法和監管不足、民眾普遍缺乏環保知識和意識、環境保護參與率極低，以致產業組成和技術效果無法朝有利於空氣品質（即降低空氣汙染排放量）的方向發展。因此，轉型中越南的經濟發展對空氣品質的總效果趨向負面。

While Vietnam is seen as the next Asian Tiger in recent years, it has become one of the leading countries in the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions. This article studies Vietnam’s environmental quality, using air pollution and economic data from the World Bank, civil rights data from Freedom House, and survey data regarding people’s perceptions towards environmental protection from the World Values Survey and Vietnam’s Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index (PAPI). The analysis finds that Vietnam’s air quality tends to deteriorate with economic expansion. However, likely due to low and poor civil rights, environmental awareness, public participation and governance, there has been no significant transformation in industry composition or production technology that might reduce pollution emissions. Hence, Vietnam’s air quality appears to get worsened along with economic development.