經濟發展差異與區域整合成效：東協經濟共同體的挑戰

Divergence of economic development and regional integration performance: Challenges for ASEAN Economic Community

東協經濟共同體（ASEAN Economic Community, AEC）希望在2015年之前實現東協單一市場的目標，對此，外界評價不一，有的認為東協經濟共同體能讓東協成為全世界名列前茅的生產基地與市場，大幅提升區域的經濟水平，有的則認為東協機制虛弱、各國對東協認同度低、整合所需的資源不足、區域內的差異過大，且各強權皆在覬覦東協潛在的實力，這些因素使得整合不易推動。本文以檢視東協經濟共同體所揭示經濟成長動力以及利益分配正義之目標，來評估其現況與未來挑戰，如果東協經濟共同體能在這些面向中展現成果，便可提升其繼續推動之正當性，增加會員國對東協經濟共同體的認同度與執行度；反之，整合將困難重重。亦即，這些因素將會是東協經濟共同體經濟整合能否成功的關鍵。基於此，本文發現，東協經濟共同體在促進各國貿易與吸引外資上帶來正面的效應，但對整體經濟成長動能的加分效果較不明顯，東協經濟共同體僅維持了東協成員國原本經濟成長的動能，但並未進一步推升至另一個程度，因此在促進區域經濟成長上，恐難繼續取得足夠的正當性。此外，東協經濟共同體並未促進降低貧富差距之目標，或其成效不明顯。東協經濟共同體推動後雖在分配正義與縮小發展差距上有些微改善，但財富的集中度仍十分巨大。

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) seeks to achieve a single market before the end of 2015. Observers see this goal differently. Some consider AEC would bring positive dynamic that facilitates the goal while others are more pessimistic due to ASEAN's weak institutional capability, the low shared ASEAN identity in the region, the lack of necessary resources, huge divergent in many aspects among member states and the harassment resulting from great power politics in Asia. This article investigates the future of AEC by examining the achievement level of goals set by the AEC's blueprint. It involves the dynamic for economic growth and the reduction of development gap and distribution inequality. This paper assumes that should the achievement level is high, AEC could improve its legitimacy for further development; otherwise, it might confront great obstacle ahead. Based on this analytical framework, evidence shows that AEC significantly promotes trade volumes and inward foreign direct investment, but it does not push up economic growth to another level. There's no significant difference of growth momentum before and after the AEC’ introduction. In the distribution aspect, after AEC starts, national income distribution remains unequal in several member states. The distribution of trade benefits, growth momentum and income distribution among states had seen slight improvement but the income gap among AEC members remains extremely huge.