從消費支出檢視房屋財富效果

Examining the Housing Wealth Effect from Consumption Expenditures

房地產占家庭財富的重要比例，因此房價變動應會對家庭的決策產生重要影響。本研究分析臺灣四大都會區及八種不同類型的消費，將房價變動分為可預期與不可預期的變動，檢驗房價變動對消費影響的財富效果。實證發現，房價變動對消費的影響在各區域有不同的表現。可預期的房價變動對消費的影響，在臺北市的娛樂和文化服務具有統計上的顯著。消費對不可預期房價變動的反應，臺中高雄地區的消費種類大多呈現正向顯著，而臺北市與新北市的交通以及娛樂和文化服務為負向顯著。就全臺而言，在住宅負擔較嚴峻的雙北地區，其房屋財富效果低於中南部地區。本文發現消費對房價變動反應有區域性的差異，隱含家庭房屋財富效果在南北地區的不同。

Since housing typically accounts for a large proportion of household wealth, the changes in housing prices should have an impact on household decisions. This research divides the changes in housing prices into expected and unexpected changes and examines the wealth effect of such changes on consumption. We consider the major metropolitan areas in Taiwan and different types of consumption goods. Our findings show that the housing wealth effect is heterogeneous across areas, and that the response of consumption to expected changes in housing prices in Taipei city is significant for the expenditure on entertainment services. For the response of consumption to unexpected changes in housing prices, we present the positive effect in Taichung and Kaohsiung cities for most consumption goods, while it is negative in Taipei and New Taipei cities for the expenditure on transportation and entertainment services. Generally speaking, the housing wealth effect in the north, where housing affordability is severe, is lower than that in the central and southern regions.