刑事警察偵查決策之研究

Investigative Decision-Making by Criminal Investigators in Taiwan

犯罪偵查是一種高度知識性與時間壓力的任務，其成功與否取決於偵查人員的偵查決策，即在適當時間作出充分且正確的假設，並擬定相對應偵查作為之能力。外界普遍將偵查專業視為一種經驗傳承及累積模式，對其概念與探討相當欠缺與模糊，相關研究近乎空白。本研究採用Fahsing與Ask（2016）準實驗法素材，對我國32位刑警經驗10年以上資深組以及32位從警經驗2年以下新手組，就二個模擬案件提出偵查假設與偵查作為，並以事先建立的黃金標準評分分析，檢視經驗以及關鍵決策點對於偵查假設與作為影響。研究發現經驗雖有助偵查人員提出較多偵查作為，但無助於偵查假設擬定，且無論資深或新手均傾向提出犯罪假設；決策點存在與否對偵查假設與作為未見影響。綜合文獻及研究結果，本文認為偵查人員在偵查過程中確實存在偵查決策，經驗雖有助偵查人員了解偵查知識與作為，但若缺乏偵查決策等課程訓練以及系統性的專業培訓機制，對偵查決策助益則難以呈現。本文最後提出持續進行偵查決策研究與教學之建議，以達到系統化提升偵查專業的目的。

Criminal investigation, which is generally conducted in knowledge-intensive and time-sensitive environments, presents a critical challenge to criminal investigators. The success of a criminal investigation significantly depends on the investigator’s ability to generate possible investigative hypotheses and test those using different lines of inquiry. Criminal investigation is conventionally considered a skill, where the investigator’s field experiences are crucial to improve the field. A few studies have focused on investigative decision making in Taiwan. This research aims to examine the effects of professional experience and investigative tipping points on the quality of investigative hypotheses and investigative actions conducted by investigators. A quasi-experimental design developed by Fahsing & Ask (2016) was employed, where 32 senior investigators and novice police officers were presented with two semi-fictitious cases. They were asked to report all the relevant investigative hypotheses and necessary investigative actions, which were evaluated against the established gold standard. The results showed that investigators with greater professional experience presented improved investigative actions but not hypotheses. In particular, participants tended to generate criminal hypotheses and ignored noncriminal ones. The investigative tipping point did not have a significant effect on the participants’responses concerning the production of gold-standard hypotheses and lines of inquiry. Hence, it was arrived at the conclusion that investigative decision making actually existed in criminal investigation process, which could not be improved without systematical and continued training. Finally, several suggestions have been proposed in this study for the research and training of investigative thinking in Taiwan.