不確定性考量下舊市區活化發展之多準則策略規劃評選

Multiple-Criteria Strategy Planning and Evaluation for Old Downtown Revitalization under Uncertainty Considerations

受都市化威脅與城市轉變影響，舊有城市地區的活化發展已成為全球性急迫課題；為能有效落實，須對相應的策略進行適當規劃與評價。舊市區活化概念與發展策略評選涉及層面廣泛，相關組成元素間常存有正、反雙向同時影響，與複雜相依關係等不確定性；因此，本研究提出一整合式的過程評選模型以資對應。先透過文獻回顧與需求掌握，以利益──機會──成本──風險（BOCR）為分類基礎，彙整34項可能影響因素，並藉由模糊德爾菲法（FDM）篩選得15項評價準則；再利用模糊決策實驗室分析法（FDEMATEL）釐清存在於準則間的相互影響，並援引BOCR概念整合分析網路程序（ANP）的結構，將欲探討地區的可行活化發展策略方案整併其間建立整體評選架構模型。爾後，將該模型應用於新竹市舊市區之經由優勢──劣勢──機會──威脅（SWOT）分析所研擬的五項可行策略方案進行實證；透過模糊ANP with BOCR（FANP with BOCR）數學運算與評比，評選出最佳活化發展策略。研究結果可為舊市區的活化發展提供行動的基礎與具體的導引。

The revitalization development of old-downtown has been revealed to be globally urgent due to the rapid urbanization and resulting transformation of cities. Effective revitalization practices require appropriate planning and assessment of corresponding strategy. Old-downtown revitalization and the development strategy assessment have a wide range of levels, with simultaneous interrelationships of positive-negative impacts among related components, as well as uncertainties. Hence, this study proposes a hybrid process model for solving the problem. The model initially generalizes and assigns 34 relevant possible influence factors through literature review and a focus on present development condition based on four benefits-opportunities-costs-risks (BOCR) merits. The Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) is then adopted to extract 15 definite evaluation criteria. The interdependence among the evaluation criteria is then evaluated using fuzzy decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL). Based on the structure of analytic network process (ANP) with BOCR, the feasible development strategies of an exploratory area can be integrated to construct a complete planning and evaluation model. Finally, Hsinchu-Old-Downtown is employed as an empirical case study. Five proposed strategy alternatives obtained from the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis are integrated with the constructed model. The proposed fuzzy ANP with BOCR is applied to calculate the priorities and to evaluate and select the best option. The analytical results can not only provide an activation basis and concrete guidance for old downtown revitalization development, but can also extend to operative reference for research in relevant fields.