拜登的圍中戰略及其對兩岸關係的影響

Biden's Encirclement Strategy against China and Its Impacts on Cross-Strait Relations

在1990年代末期，美中競爭態勢已現，然2001年美國遭恐攻，使得恐怖組織取代中國成為首要敵對者，中國得以韜光養晦，低頭搞建設，美國則陷入反恐戰爭的泥淖。自此，國力上出現美降而中升的現象。歐巴馬的重返亞太、再平衡戰略，以及川普的印太戰略以及拜登的「川規拜隨」皆欲藉由結盟的削弱中國。習近平自2013年開展中國夢的霸業，其欲以美國爭雄又交往的企圖自2017年川普上台屢遭挫折並處處樹敵。而其追求第三任政權與對內、對外激進的鐵腕政策，已令自身陷入內憂外患的困境。台灣位居美中對峙的戰略中線，其重要性在提升，但風險也同步增加。本文藉由諸多事件的爬梳與詮釋，企圖勾畫出從過去到現在，台美中關係所呈現的結構趨勢，並提出展望未來的觀察與判斷。

"At the end of 1990s, the competition between the United States and China was already present. However, in 2001, the US was attacked by terrorism, which made terrorist organizations replace China as its primary enemy. Since then, there has been a phenomenon in which the US has fallen but China has risen in terms of national power. Obama's pivot to Asia and, then, rebalancing strategy in 2009-16, Trump's Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017-20, and Biden's extension of Trump's anti-China policy all seek to weaken China through the alliance with advanced democracies. Since 2013, Xi Jinping has started his hegemony of the Chinese Dream. Xi's attempt to make use of American economic and technological resources in achieving hegemony over the US by more intensive and comprehensive exchanges has been blamed and frustrated by Trump as well as Biden since 2017. However, Xi's pursuit of political power in 2022, the third term has aroused discontent from within and without. Nevertheless, the discount conversely makes him reaction more hawkish internally and externally, and as has plunged himself into a predicament of troubles. Taiwan's strategic position in the centerline of the confrontation between the US and China has upheld its importance, though the risks are also increasing. B ased on the analysis and interpretation of many events, this article attempts to outline the structural trends of the Taiwan-US-China relationship from the past to the present, and, then, also proposes observations and judgments for the future development."