台灣三代代間所得流動之探討

ANALYSIS OF THREE-GENERATION INCOME MOBILITY IN TAIWAN

本文以1999-2016年華人家庭動態資料庫，利用Solon（2014）的代間所得流動模型，探討台灣三個世代的所得流動情形。本文分別估計父系與母系家庭的代間所得彈性，實證結果發現以子代所得較為接近恆常所得的年齡區間估計，父親與子女世代的所得彈性介於0.249與0.332之間，若同時控制父親及祖父母之所得，父與子女世代的所得彈性則介於0.222與0.310，祖父母與子女世代的所得彈性則介於0.249與0.561；母與子女世代的所的彈性則介於0.208與0.269，在控制母親及外祖父母所得的情況下，母與子女世代的所得彈性則介於0.235與0.276，外祖父母與子女世代的所得彈性皆不顯著。我們的估計結果顯示長期性代間所得關聯僅限於父系間，隱含台灣社會所存在的父權結構為影響代間所得流動的重要因素。

"Using data from the 1999–2016 Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) and the model proposed by Solon (2014), this paper analyzes three-generation income mobility in Taiwan. The intergenerational income elasticity is estimated for both paternal and maternal families, wheretheageofchildrenisrestrictedtotheperiod when theirobserved income is close to their permanent income. The estimated father-child income elasticity is 0.249–0.332. Controlling for the income of the father and paternal grandparents, the father-child income elasticity falls to 0.222–0.310. The grandparents-child income elasticity is 0.249–0.561, and the mother-child income elasticity is 0.208–0.269. Controlling for the income of the mother and maternal grandparents, the mother-child income elasticity rises to 0.235–0.276. The maternal grandparents-child income elasticity is, however, statistically insignificant. Our estimated results indicate that intergenerational income correlations are mostly observed on the paternal side in the long run. This implies that the patriarchal family structure plays an important role in intergenerational income mobility in Taiwan."