氣候變遷下入侵雜草與農業生產的空間衝突性評估

Accessing the spatial conflict of invasive plant and agricultural production under climate change in Taiwan

生物入侵是造成農業環境劣化與經濟損耗的主要原因，瞭解入侵生物可能構成威脅的空間資訊，有助於入侵問題的預防與管理。本研究挑選具高度侵略潛力之5種外來入侵雜草作為目標種，運用生態棲位模式預測各物種當前及未來氣候變遷情境下（RCP 2.6與RCP 8.5，2060～2080年）的棲地適宜性，並透過與農業生產價值圖資的空間交集分析，評估兩者的潛在空間衝突性。研究結果顯示，溫度變項是驅使入侵雜草改變地理分布範圍的主因，所分析之5種入侵雜草未來皆將受益於氣候變遷，除增加整體的適宜棲地範圍外，亦將對農業生產帶來程度不一的影響，其中合果芋、大花咸豐草與落葵等3種當前之明顯衝突區，在未來將往北發生轉移，應可將防治重點調整至高緯度的衝突區；相反地，美洲含羞草與含羞草等2種，則須持續關注當前的明顯衝突區。總結而言，本研究透過空間交集分析，可明確指出入侵雜草與農業生產價值的潛在的空間衝突區位與程度，得以為防治優先性的規劃提供具體的參考資訊。

Biological invasion is the main cause of agricultural environmental degradation and economic loss. Understanding the spatial information that invading organisms may pose a threat is helpful to the prevention and management of invasion problems. In this study, five invasive weed species with high aggressive potential were selected as target species, and the ecological niche model was used to predict the habitat suitability for current and future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, 2060~2080). Through the spatial intersection analysis with the agricultural production value map, the potential spatial conflicts between the two are identified. The results showed that temperature variables are the main cause of changes for geographic distribution of invasive weeds. All five invasive weed species will benefit from climate change in the future. They not only increase the range of suitable habitats, but also have varying degrees of impact on agricultural production. We found that the conflicts among the three species, such as Syngonium podophyllum, Bidens pilosa var. radiata, and Basella alba, will shift to the north. We therefore considered that it should be possible to adjust the effort to high-latitude conflict zones. On the contrary, for Mimosa diplotricha and Mimosa pudica, we must continue to pay attention to the current locations where have conspicuous conflicts. In conclusion, this study can clearly xpress the extent of potential spatial conflicts between invasive weeds and agricultural production value using spatial intersection analysis to aid the prioritizing management.