台灣股市散戶的口頭資訊評價實作

Evaluation of Word-of-Mouth Information by Retail Stock Investors in Taiwan

本文探討台灣股市散戶的口頭資訊評價實作。口頭資訊具有高度不確定性，且其價值通常無法由內容直接判斷，因此散戶會以資訊提供者的社會特性作為關鍵代理性指標（proxy indices）來間接衡量資訊初步價值，這包含與資訊提供者的「關係」強度及資訊提供者的「專業」程度。初步評價後，投資人會再以自己（相對於專業人士有限的）金融知識來解讀金融市場公開「資料」，以此來檢核口頭資訊價值。資訊事件後，投資人會以「資訊準確度」來再度評估資訊提供者「關係」或「專業」，成為一種迴路結構。研究發現不同於關係鑲嵌與社會資本觀點的推論，散戶將「強連帶」口頭資訊評估為高價值；資訊提供者的「專業」也非只是指稱高地位專業性職業，也另外用於指稱投資技術或是可靠消息管道。此外，口頭資訊提供動機也並非只有關係鑲嵌與社會資本理論著重的理性互惠，應該也有以社會互動為目的的交流。本研究顯示資訊的「風險」（錯誤資訊將造成損失）是除了資訊的「新」（資訊不重複）之外，另一個社會關係結構資訊的重要面向，行動者會依資訊風險程度差異而重視不同社會連帶所傳遞的口頭資訊。

Transmission of word-of-mouth information is common among Taiwanese stock investors, but the quality of word-of-mouth information is diffi cult to evaluate directly solely by the content of the information. The evaluative frame is composed of measurements of the social characteristics of information providers. “The tie with the information provider” and “the profession of the information provider” are the key proxy indices used in the evaluation. The profession here refers not only to “fi nancial expertise” but also “trading skills” and “access to insider information”. Financial knowledge, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are usually adopted by investors to confi rm the value of information. Afterwards, “the accuracy of information provided” is employed by investors to re-evaluate the “profession” of and “relationship” with the information providers. The contribution of this paper is to highlight the importance of the reliability of fi nancial information transmitted through social relations. The negative effects of following false fi nancial information, such as large trading loss, would make stock investors become concerned about the “risk” rather than the “novelty” of information and tend to more highly value the word-ofmouth information from strong ties.