『跨大西洋貿易及投資夥伴協議』之回顧與展望

Review and Prospect on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

美國與歐盟的『跨大西洋貿易及投資夥伴協議』是在2013年宣布開展，是世界上兩個最大的經濟體的自由貿易談判，當時總共製造了全世界40%的GDP，貿易量佔全球1/3，將會是全世界最大的貿易協定。此貿易協定在當時的確讓世人眼界大開，也高度好奇這個涵蓋18億消費者，以及協調歐盟和北美從食品安全領域、環境保護、到行金融領域的協定，結果將會是如何。本文的目的在理解這個人類歷史上最大量的自由貿易協定，探索從其產生的背景因素，到談判的因難，終至停止的發展歷程，最後以未來學的「多層次因果分析法」進行自由貿易之深層剖析，並探討其可能之未來發展。本文發現，雙方從一開始就知道戰略意義大於經濟效益，不只是兩造的經濟規模的龐大，更重要的是它的屬性是要一個全面性的大規模的管理協定，加上非關稅障礙的問題複雜，難度是史無前例的高。此外，該協議更有重要的戰略意義，著眼點在於鞏固美歐的戰略同盟、維護美歐在全球經貿規範中的話語權，並且降低歐洲對俄羅斯能源的依賴等。目前是終止狀態，但是仍保有重新開啟的可能性。

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) of the United States and the European Union was initiated and launched in 2013. This agreement was targeted at the two biggest economy units of the world and would be the biggest trade agreement of the world. It certainly caught global enormous attention, in which curiosity and expectation mixed by different observers' interests. The main purpose of this paper is to review the development of TTIP and examine the difficulties behind this complicated negotiation which covered issues from environmental, cybersecurity, privacy, and even cultural differences. The finding and conclusion suggest that TTIP was more than trade and economic purposes from the beginning. Especially the geopolitical strategy consideration prevailed over the original trade objectives. Although it seems idle now, its reopening still remains as the possible future.