高雄市環狀輕軌對鄰近地區住宅價格之影響：以差異中之差異法結合分量迴歸模型之分析

Effect of Kaohsiung Circular Light Rail Line on Residential Prices in Neighboring Areas:An Analysis Using the Difference-in-Difference Method and Quantile Regression

高雄市輕軌運輸系統（light rail-transit, LRT）於2013年6月宣告動工，於2017年9月第一階段全線完工（C1站-C14站）。本研究探討輕軌運輸系統建設開工後對鄰近住宅價格之影響。蒐集不動產實價登錄高雄市2012年到2017年登載資料。本研究採用傾向分數配對（propensity score matching, PSM）方法找出兩組相似的樣本，再以差異中之差異法（difference-in-difference method, DD）分析，並分別採用傳統OLS及分量迴歸進行估計。實證結果顯示，以OLS估計結果，從開工後兩年半間對鄰近房價有正向顯著的影響，之後對鄰近房價沒有顯著影響。以分量迴歸而言，在低房價（0.10分量）及中低房價（0.25分量）方面，除了開工一年半後一年間（即2015年）對於鄰近房價具有顯著正向影響外，其它各期都不顯著。在中價位（0.50分量）方面，開工後兩年半內具有顯著正向影響，二年半後至三年半間（即2016年）無顯著影響，於完工前、後半年又開始產生顯著正向影響。此外，輕軌對於鄰近之高價位不動產於開工一年半內有價格提升的現象，之後其效果不顯著。

The construction of Kaohsiung City's light rail-transit (LRT) officially commenced in June 2013, and the first phase of the project (stations C1-C14) was completed in September 2017. This study examined the effect of the commencement of the LRT project's construction on the residential prices in neighboring areas. The real estate price registration data for Kaohsiung City from 2012 to 2017 was collected, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to find two similar sample groups. Thereafter, the difference-in-difference (DD) method was applied and estimations were made using traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regression. The OLS estimation results indicated that the project had significant positive effects on residential prices in neighboring areas during the 2.5-year period after the project's commencement. However, the project's effect was not significant after that period. The quantile regression analysis showed the following: for low-priced (0.10 quartile) and moderately low-priced (0.25 quartile) residential units, the project only had a significant positive effect between 1.5 and 2.5 years (i.e. during 2015) after the project's commencement; for moderately-priced units (0.5 quartile), the project had a significant positive effect during the 2.5-year period after the project's commencement but did not influence prices significantly between 2.5 and 3.5 years (i.e. during 2016) after the project's commencement. A significant positive effect was observed between 0.5 years before and after the project's completion. Furthermore, the LRT project also contributed to a rise in the prices of high-priced units during the 1.5-year period after the project's commencement, although this effect ceased to be significant thereafter.